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Premarket Analysis for 7/25- Upgrades/Downgrades, Gappers, Actionable Calls

Submitted By Optiondragon

From Briefing.com
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Periodicals Wrap-Up for Friday, July 25th
WALL STREET JOURNAL: The Wall Street Journal reported that Cleveland -Cliffs (CLF) was set to buy Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) for $10B, but they didn’t get an okay from Phil Falcone’s Harbinger Capital, which holds 16% of Cleveland, and two days before the deal was to be announced he rejected it. Now Cleveland-Cliffs itself could be a target, and Harbinger has pushed the company to sell itself — it could sell for about $14B — and take advantage of the steel boom. Possible suitors could be ArcelorMittal (MT), Nucor Corp (NUE), or U.S. Steel Corp.(X)…Thanks to better stock prices, private equity firms and hedge funds are again looking at cash starved banks, the Wall Street Journal reported. BankUnited Financial (BKLNA) has attracted two firms. Downey Financial (DSL) has the attention of MatlinPatterson, the rescuer of Thornburg Mortgage (TMA). Earlier this week, Boston Private Financial Holdings (BPFH) received $75M from the Carlyle Group…FINANCIAL TIMES: The Financial Times reported that Wal-Mart (WMT) hammered out collective bargaining agreements with unions in two Chinese cities. Under the agreements, employees in the cities of Shenyang and Quanzhou will receive raises of about 8% in 2008 and 2009…TELEGRAPH: JPMorgan (JPM) has negotiated with several companies about launching a consortium to acquire the largest British mortgage lender, HBOS, according to the Telegraph. JPMorgan is believed to have held talks with a large Australian bank, thought to be National Australia Bank (NABZY), about the matter…

Blackrock-BLK could gain further upside momentum - BusinessWeek
Shares of BlackRock (BLK), the largest publicly traded U.S. asset manager, have shown resilience after reporting better-than-expected Q2 results. It’s now at 222.57, up from 178 on July 16. Michael Hecht of Banc of America Securities says, “It may well have risen to a level from which BlackRock could gain further upside momentum.” Also at the time of the report, BlackRock disclosed that Merrill Lynch (MER), which owns 49% of the stock, agreed not to sell its stake. Had Merrill Lynch decided otherwise, BlackRock’s stock might have crashed. Hecht, who rates BlackRock a buy, says it is “the best stock in our coverage” and worth 225�based on the asset manager’s “best-in-class products and broad mix of assets under management.” Marc Irizarry of Goldman Sachs upgraded BlackRock to buy from neutral, noting that its fundamentals have improved further, with the inflow of funds accelerating.

Morgan Stanley is looking to hire some of Merrill’s brokers-CNBC
Morgan Stanley (MS) is trying to recruit brokers currently working at Merrill Lynch (MER). Because of Merrill’s recent struggles, brokers who previously never returned Morgan Stanley’s calls are now looking to move to Morgan.

Lack of confidence keeps financial sector down-WSJ
The rally in the financials was short-lived thanks to dismal sales of exiting homes. It’s tough to grasp what’s going on with banks’ balance sheets, according to the Wall Street Journal’s “Heard on the Street”, which focuses on Bank of America’s (BAC) purchase of Countrywide Financial Corp. (CFC). The sinking value of Countrywide’s loans points to what value other banks could expect to receive if they tried to sell their loans in the current market. The picture isn’t pretty and the loans plunge well below the banks stated book values.. “That is why you see so many banks trading at such a discount to book value,” says Craig Emrick at Moody’s Investors Service.

Apple to add more GPS features, beta testing iPhone 2.1 firmware-GearLive
GearLive has heard that Apple (AAPL) has released to developers a beta version of iPhone OS 2.1. With the OS 2.1, GearLive says, comes the addition of new Core Location features “that track the direction you are heading, and the speed you are traveling”.

Mechel Steel may be seen as takeover target after Putin comments-dealReporter
According to dealReporters investment banking and industry sources, Mechel Steel (MTL) may be seen as a takeover target by Evraz, Severstal and MMK after comments from Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Puting. The sources said that it is unlikely a bid will be made over the summer for Mechel but a move towards a possible takeover could being as early as this Autumn.

Elan Corp-ELN: Raising Tysabri outlook after solid Q2 results@COWN
Cowen raised their Tysabri penetration and sales targets by 9%-12% annually following better trends in the Q2 report. The firm remains Neutral rated as they see little upside in ELN shares given bapineuzumab Ph II data is 24 months away.

Potash-POT: Recommend buying on pullback, reiterate Outperform@FBCO
Credit Suisse recommends adding to POT positions on the pullback. The firm said upward pressure on fertilizer prices remains very strong. Target $280.

U.S. equity futures are now pointing to a higher open
U.S. stock futures made a fast run higher as new orders for manufactured durable-goods in June came in much higher than expectations, up 0.8% versus expectations for a decrease of -0.3%. This was the second consecutive monthly increase and followed a 0.1 percent May increase. The S&P 500 futures jumped 5.60 points to 1,259 and Nasdaq 100 futures added 12 points to 1,831, while the Dow industrials made a strong move higher to up 44 points to 11,385..

Range Resources-RRC upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform@RBCM
RBC Capital upgraded RRC based on valuation and strong Marcellus drilling results. Target to $85 from $75

Arch Coal-ACI reports Q2 EPS 78c vs. consensus of 64c
Reports Q2 revenue $785.1M vs. consensus of $737.07M. Sees FY08 EPS $2.50-$2.85 vs. consensus of $2.67, sees FY08 sales volume 133M-$137M tons.

Legg Mason-LM reports Q2 EPS (22c) vs. consensus of 13c
Reports Q2 revenue $1.05B vs. consensus of $1.04B. Assets Under Management were $922.8 billion, down 3% from $950.1 billion at March 31, 2008, and down 7% from $992.4 billion at June 30, 2007. The first quarter net loss resulted from charges arising from previously announced support for money market funds, totaling $155.4 million after tax and operating expense adjustments, or $1.09 per diluted share.

Genentech-DNA target raised to $97 from $85@DBAB
Deutsche Bank believes the company’s negotiating leverage with Roche has increased substantially following last night’s press release. Shares remain Buy rated.

SunPower-SPWR acquires Solar Sales
SunPower Corporation announced that it has completed the acquisition of Australian integrator and distributor, Solar Sales Pty Ltd. With this acquisition, SunPower now extends its global presence into the emerging Australian solar market.

Celgene-CELG target raised to $86 from $79 after solid Q2 results@SBSH
Citigroup found Vidaza’s quarter over quarter growth impressive and maintains a Buy rating.

Black & Decker-BDK reports Q2 EPS $1.58 vs. consensus of $1.42
Reports Q2 revenue $1.6B vs. consensus of $1.6B. Sees FY08 EPS $5.25-$5.45 vs. consensus of $5.27. Sees Q3 EPS $1.30-$1.50 vs. consensus of $1.34.

Netflix-NFLX sees Q3 EPS 26c-35c vs. consensus of 31c
Sees Q3 revenue of $343M-$348M vs. consensus of $347.16M, sees Q3 ending subscribers of 8.675M-8.875M. Sees Q4 EPS 29c-37c, revenue $357M-$367M, ending subscribers of 9.1M to 9.7M. Sees FY08 EPS $1.19-$1.31 vs. consensus of $1.23, sees FY08 revenue $1.364B-$1.379B vs. cosnensus of $1.37B, sees ending subscribers of 9.1M to 9.7M.

Netflix-NFLX reports Q2 EPS 42c vs. consensus of 40c
Reports Q2 revenue $337.6M vs. consensus of $337.56M.

Crocs-CROX downgraded to Neutral from Outperform@BARD
Baird downgraded CROX following the company’s weak Q2 report and guidance. Target $5.

Wynn Resorts-WYNN target raised to $120 from $116 after strong quarter@JEFF
Jefferies raised their target WYNN’s “strong” quarter and believes current levels present a buying opportunity.

Jim Cramer’s “Mad Money”
Cramer says despite Thursday’s 283-point drop in the Dow - there are positives - with the most notable being that gas prices continue to fall and fall hard. Cramer is looking for stocks that will benefit from falling fuel prices. Walt Disney (DIS) is that stock. Despite being beaten up by the market and analysts over fears of rising airfares. Disney positives: a recent study which stated that auto traffic to Disney World has been steadily increasing, not decreasing; the weak U.S. dollar makes travelling to Disney World cheaper for the rest of the world; and it owns ESPN, a premium cable property that is doing exceptionally well. He called analysts “way behind the curve” in their estimates for the stock. He recommended buying Disney on any weakness, especially if it falls below $30. Cramer recommended Tupperware (TUP) as another company poised to take advantage of falling gas prices. TUP shares are up 96%, since his recommendation on Oct. 8, 2006. Cramer called Tupperware a defensive stock, because it’s not a traditional brick and mortar retailer, due to its direct sales model. With only 17% of the company’s costs tied to oil-based resins, lower crude prices means high margins, he noted. Cramer invited Tupperware chair/CEO Rick Goings to the show. Goings confirmed that the company’s guidance today was indeed conservative and didn’t take into account any drop in resin prices. Cramer confirmed his support for Tupperware and re-recommended buying the stock. SELL BLOCK: Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia (MSO) negative for years, Cramer now feels MSO is poised for a turnaround from just a publisher to a merchandising powerhouse. Martha Stewart Living positives; a new CEO; expansion overseas is strong; and new merchandising deals with Wal-Mart (WMT), Costco (COST) and a continued partnership with KB Home (KBH). While he did not recommending buying MSO before the company reports next week, he did advocate buying in under $8 a share. MAD MAIL: Qualcomm (QCOM) he says its going much higher. He is not a fan of Boeing (BA), but would consider Northrop Grumman (NOC). Cramer defended his call to sell Peabody Energy (BTU), saying that he can’t have people too exposed to the energy sector with fuel pricing falling. SUDDEN DEATH: (Bullish) APC, EXC. (Bearish) FMCN. LIGHTNING ROUND: (Bullish) NBR, SLB, HK, RCII. (Bearish) WFMI, HAL, IDCC, WMI.

Fast Money position recap: First Moves: Joe likes SLB, Tim likes RDX, Karen likes shorting BBT.
Macke Owns (WMT), (MSFT); Finerman Owns (GS), (WM); Finerman’s Firm Owns (SUN), (TSO), (VLO), (MSFT); Finerman’s Firm And Finerman Own (C) And (C) Leaps; Finerman’s Firm Is Short (IYR), (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM), (BBT); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (F), (MER), (MSFT), (TSO), (BX); Seygem Asset Management Is Short (MTL); Seygem Asset Management Owns Gazprom

Terranova Owns (YHOO), (INTC), (IYT), (BNI), (GOOG), (CME), (RIMM), (VLO), (SA),  (XLF), (FCX), (SU); Terranova Is Long Crude Oil September $154 Calls, Terranova Is Short Crude Oil September $130 Calls, Terranova Is Short Crude Oil September $130 Puts, Terranova Is Long Gold Futures (December)

(Important note on how to use this upgrade/downgrade list with analyst comments and news….you must parse out the factual data (Factual data is the most important) from the opinionated data and always take all analyst comments with a grain of salt. Do not follow blindly with their recommendations. Remember that technicals are the most powerful force in short term direction for stock prices due to the law of supply and demand.)

The pullback in the market was not surprising yesterday but the degree of the pullback was…. Art Cashin says we should expect a pop and run through the middle of the day followed by another pullback. I am looking at the financials and seeing if they can lead the market higher, tough thing to do if your overbought in the short term so I hope we see some stabilization in that sector which could lead to stabilization of the market. With energy getting completely beaten down I am looking for other sectors to help lead this rally higher. If we don’t get any leadership the market will resume its downward course. I keep in mind that the sharpest rallies occur during bear markets as is the sharpest corrections happen in bull markets. We are still in bear market territory and the market follow through on the second wave off the low broke yesterday. So here we are and here we will be watching intently building a list of longs and shorts and ready to react to near term market environments. Pick plays with a high probability of success, run technicals through support and resistance, have focus and patience, remember to have fun! :) Great luck and HappyTrading!

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Market Locks In Profits: SPX, Nasdaq, BIDU, AMZN, QCOM, GS, BAC, MA, MER

Yesterday, on the member board, with 1 hour left in trading, I said:
HappyTrading
Posted July 23, 2008 at 12:04 pm | Permalink (Edit)
I’m starting to go cash!

This was because many of the tech and financials stocks were showing short-term tops. Yesterday, after the market BIDU, AMZN, and QCOM reported good earnings and news. The 3 stocks did well individually and helped the market to open higher. But, the market quickly succumbed to the pressure from profit-taking. The financial sector got hit pretty hard, as XLF gave up 6.72%! GS was down 4.03%; BAC lost 8.37% (we locked in our +100% profit at the right time); MA slid 4.62%; and MER dropped 14.11%!

BIDU traded as high as $341, but, closed at $335.08, up just over +16%. AMZN traded as high as $82.38; and closed at $78.72, up +11.6%. QCOM went as high as $54.51, closing at $52.43, up almost +17%. I do think that all 3 stocks have more room to go higher.

The Dow closed down 283.1 points; SPX lost 29.65 points; Nasdaq fell 45.77 points:
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VIX went up +10% to close at 23.44. SOX (semiconductors) was weak, losing +4.22%. HGX dropped 8.61%. UNG was down again, dropping 5.38%; but, USO (oil) bounced up +1.44%. XME (metals and mining) slid another 3.99%. GLD (gold) and SLV (silver) recorded small gains. FXI (Chinese ADRs) slipped 4.3%.

SPX
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SPX lost 29.65 points to close at 1252.54. It closed at its 10-day MA. The MACD flattened.

Nasdaq
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Nasdaq fell 45.77 to close at 2280.11. It closed just above its 20-day MA. Its MACD also flattened a bit.

The market is doing what it’s supposed to do: take some profits after a week’s gain. Although the quick drop may have been a little sharp, sometimes this could be a good thing. This may help to release the selling pressure fast so that the market can resume the recovery. VIX jumped 2 points today. If it stays below 24, the market should be in a pretty good shape. Above 25 would not be good for the market. Tomorrow is Friday, so people may want to keep things in cash. If the market can hold flat or maybe even make some small gains, it’ll be encouraging.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

Premarket Analysis for 7/24- Upgrades/Downgrades, Gappers, Actionable Calls

Submitted By Optiondragon

From Briefing.com
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Periodicals Wrap-Up for Thursday, July 24th
WALL STREET JOURNAL: The Wall Street Journal’s “Smartmoney Stock Screen” looks at eight companies whose valuations make them ripe to buy, and they also may be in the sites of corporate buyers. The big eight include Asbury Automobile (ABG), Crane (CR), Scholastic (SCHL) and Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG)…The Wall Street Journal’s Walter Mossberg said in the “Personal Technology” column he cannot recommend Apple’s MobileMe, as it has “too many flaws to keep its promises”…The Wall Street Journal also speculated that the collapse this week of SemGroup LP, which is the parent of SemGroup Energy Partners (SGLP), may have played a role in the 14% drop in crude oil over the past 10 days…FINANCIAL TIMES: In a move that could take advantage of the gap in the financing markets, Goldman Sachs (GS) raised $10B to invest in loans backing leveraged buyouts. The fund will reportedly buy senior loans, the Financial Times reported…NEW YORK POST: Former American International Group (AIG) CEO Hank Greenberg is reportedly in settlement talks with New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo over charges that Greenberg improperly inflated corporate books to show improved profits, the New York Post said…

Goldman to launch new fund for financing buyouts-FT
Goldman Sachs (GS) has created a $10B fund which will buy loans that finance leveraged buyouts. The investment bank is trying to exploit a void in the financing markets caused by the credit crisis. The new fund will enable Goldman to finance deals on its own.

Trading revenue concerns affect CME Group and IntercontinentalExchange-WSJ
The effects of the credit crisis have come to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s CME Group (ICE) and the IntercontinentalExchange (NMX), as investors are concerned that the exchanges’ trading revenue will be hurt because of fewer market bets by banks and hedge funds, according to the Wall Street Journal’s “Heard on the Street”. This despite record high trading in commodities. Regulatory concerns are also playing a role.

AMZN: Recommend selling the relief rally, reiterate Sell@AMTR
AmTech recommends selling the relief rally in AMZN shares as they expect weaker consumer spending in 2H08 and see significantly higher risk to top and or bottom-line shortfalls. Target reduced to $60 from $65.

AMZN: Company’s profitability level does not justify valuation@GABE
After Amazon reported that its Q2 revenue jumped 41%, Gabelli still finds the company’s valuation unattractive, and they maintained their Hold rating.

Diamond Offshore-DO upgraded to Buy from Add@LYON
Calyon upgraded DO following the strong Q2 report. Target $156.

Baidu.com-BIDU: Target to $440 from $420 on strong top-line growth@SUSQ
Shares are Positive rated.

U.S. equity futures continue to point to a lower open
Oil prices have edged up this morning after shedding nearly $4 a barrel yesterday because of concerns that high fuel prices are dampening demand for the world’s biggest energy consumer. A weekly report from the U.S. Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration showed that gasoline demand over the four weeks ended July 18 was 2.4% lower than a year ago, offering further evidence that Americans are cutting back on fuel consumption. Oil currently is up 67 cents to $125.11.

Baidu.com-BIDU: View Q3 guidance as conservative@PACS
Pacific Crest believes BIDU’s growth in Q2 was balanced and sustainable and would be buyers of the stock in anticipation of Q3 upside given the conservative guidance. The firm maintains an Outperform rating on the stock.

Russia will supply to Iran advanced anti-aircraft systems-Reuters
Reuters reports that Iran will receive S-300 missile batteries, an advanced Russian-made anti-aircraft system, by the end of 2008. Senior Israeli defense sources say the system could help fend off strikes against its nuclear facilities. One source believes the first delivery may occur as early as September, though it may take up to 12 months for the missile batteries to be deployed an operable.

CFTC to announce enforcement case related to national crude oil probe later Thur
Reuters is reporting that the CFTC will announce enforcement action related to national crude oil probe later on Thursday.

Qualcomm-QCOM: Continue to recommend shares despite strength@FBCO
Credit Suisse said QCOM is very under-owned and believes the stock is going to the $70’s. Shares are Outperform rated.

Qualcomm-QCOM: Settlement with NOK a huge win@COWN
Cowen said QCOM’s settlement with NOK is a huge win and removes a major barrier to shares moving higher. The firm said the deal is worth approximately 8c a quarter to QCOM. Shares are Outperform rated.

Chipotle Mexican Grill-CMG: Shares defended, story playing out@COWN
Cowen said the near-term short story in CMG is well played out and that today’s reduced eps is more than reflected in shares. Cowen rates shares Outperform.

Potash-POT downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform@Scotia
Agrium-AGU downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform@Scotia

Chipotle Mexican Grill-CMG.b downgraded to Neutral from Overweight@JPMS
JP Morgan downgraded CMG Class B shares to Neutral following the Q2 miss. CMG Class A shares remain Neutral rated.

Celgene-CELG reports Q2 EPS 37c vs. consensus of 35c
Reports Q2 revenue $571.5M vs. consensus $538.93M.

U.S. equity futures point to a lower open
U.S. stock futures are moderately weaker this morning ahead of more data on the troubled housing market and another wave of earnings. Amazon.com (AMZN) is expected to be one bright spot. Today, weekly jobless claims numbers are on the docket for the week of July 19, and will be released at 8:30 am. The survey calls for 380,000, up from the prior 366,000. At 10:00 am existing-home sales are expected to show that they fell slightly further in June, and are approaching a record low. That will signal tumbling real estate values and dampened consumer confidence. The survey estimates that resales fell 1% to a 4.94M annual rate in June. This morning, the S&P 500 futures fell 5.90 points to 1,276.50 and Dow industrial futures fell 47 points to 11,566. The Nasdaq 100 futures edged up 0.2 of a point to 1,849.2 after the Amazon.com report. Investors are also digesting yesterday’s House of Representative’s approval of legislation that seeks to slow the steep slide in house prices, rescue hundreds of thousands of homeowners at risk of foreclosure, and reassure global markets that mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) will not be allowed to fail.

Memc Electronic Mat-WFR: View shares near $40 as ‘extremely undervalued’@SOLE
Soleil believes investors are overreacting to the disappointing last couple of quarters and the firm expects better results heading into 2009. They maintain a Buy rating and $103 target.

Agnico-Eagle-AEM upgraded to Buy from Neutral@UBSW
UBS upgraded AEM based on valuation. Target to $77 from $82.

Qualcomm-QCOM: Would be buyers after Nokia settlement@OPCO
After Nokia (NOK) and Qualcomm settled their legal dispute and signed a licensing agreement for 3G and 4g technologies, Oppenheimer believes Qualcomm will significantly beat consensus estimates for its 2009 and they think its multiple will expand.

Diamond Offshore-DO declares special dividend of $1.25 per share
Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors has declared a special cash dividend of $1.25 per share of common stock and a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.125 per share of common stock. Both dividends are payable on September 1, 2008 to shareholders of record on August 1, 2008.

Allstate-ALL: Still concerned about write-downs@WCHV
After Allstate reported lower than expected Q2 EPS, Wachovia is still worried that the company will take additional write-downs, since it has one of the largest amount of subprime holdings among property and casualty insurers they cover. The firm maintained their Market Perform rating.

Qualcomm-QCOM added to Top Picks Live list, maintain Buy@SBSH
Citigroup added QCOM and removed Texas Instruments (TXN) following QCOM’s settlement with Nokia. Citigroup believes the settlement could add 26c to QCOM’s 2009 EPS and has a $61 target on the stock.

Bunge Limited-BG reports Q2 EPS $5.45 vs. consensus of $2.27
Reports Q2 revenue $14.36B vs. consensus of $13.25B.
Bunge Limited-BG raises FY08 EPS view to $11.60-$11.90 from $9.35-$9.65
Consensus is for EPS of $9.16.

Strayer Education-STRA reports Q2 EPS $1.50 vs. consensus of $1.47
Reports Q2 revenue $97.9M vs. consensus of $96.91M.

Auxilium Pharmaceuticals-AUXL downgraded to Hold from Buy@SBSH
Citigroup downgraded shares after their analysis indicated a smaller patient pool for Xiaflex than management expectations. The firm lowered their target to $37 from $43.

Potash-POT reports Q2 EPS $2.82 vs. consensus of $2.61
Reports Q2 revenue $2.62B vs. consensus of $2.55B.
Potash-POT raises FY08 EPS view to $12-$13 from $9.50-$10.50
Consensus is for EPS of $11.67.

EnCana-ECA reports Q2 EPS $1.63 vs. consensus of $1.84
Reports Q2 revenue $7.32B vs. consensus of $5.95B.

First Solar-FSLR to build 10 MW solar PV plants for Sempra Generation
First Solar announced that it will build a 10 megawatt photovoltaic power plant for Sempra Generation near Boulder City, Nevada. First Solar will design, engineer and construct the turnkey PV power plant and will provide monitoring and maintenance services for the plant over its lifetime. Sempra Generation will be the developer for the project, and will own and operate the PV power plant once completed. Construction began in July, and the 10 MW PV power plant is expected to be completed by the end of 2008. The solar modules to be deployed in this ground-mount project will be produced at First Solar’s manufacturing facility in Perrysburg, Ohio.

Jim Cramer’s “Mad Money”
Cramer says, there is an incredible opportunity here for investors to buy General Electric (GE) now, after it has been taken down with financial stocks and hasn’t rallied back, he says. Cramer cited an article is this weekend’s BusinessWeek, which called into focus GE’s exposure to the financial sector. GE, with many other businesses, actually made money this quarter, beating Wall Street’s expectations, he said. Furthermore, Cramer noted that the company has plans to sell of its under-performing consumer and industrial segment. The remaining segments, such as its infrastructure division, should all perform well in the coming year. Other infrastructure companies like Fluor (FLR), Jacobs Engineering (JEC) and ABB (ABB), are all up substantially, while GE is down 28% over the same period. Cramer said he also likes GE’s international exposure, the company’s 4.5% dividend yield, its wind power business and sees its healthcare segments as an additional driver of growth. And perhaps GE’s strongest case, said Cramer, is its recent plans to partner with Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala sovereign wealth fund. Cramer said Panera Bread (PNRA), which fell more than $2 on Wednesday after reporting better than expected earnings, has the ability to be the “next big thing.” Panera is increasing service, cutting labor costs, has expanded margins and is offering a healthy menu. He talked with Panera’s co-founder, chairman and CEO, Ron Shaich. Shaich said he doesn’t extrapolate anything from weakness in the last three weeks of the quarter. Shaich said the company sees a lot of growth to come as it carries out its strategy of becoming an alternative to traditional restaurants. MAD MAIL: Cramer told a viewer that while he now believes the merger between Sirius Satellite (SIRI) and XM Satellite (XMSR) will get done, with the additional financing needed, he’s not a fan of the common stock. He recommended Sirius as a speculative stock only. Cramer is a buyer of XTO Energy (XTO) given its recent retreat. LIGHTNING ROUND: (Bullish) SMS; RIMM; GOOG; AMZN; ENS; CI; SBAC. (Bearish) TIVO; EBAY; CRME; FCEL; F; MSFT; NHWK.

Fast money position recap- Macke Owns (WMT), (COST), (MSFT), (EMC); Najarian Owns (AAPL), (COST), (TSO); Najarian Owns (YHOO) Calls, (CSCO) Calls, (SKF) Calls; Finerman Owns (GS); Finerman’s Firm Owns (MSFT), (PPH), (SUN), (TSO), (VLO); Finerman’s Firm And Finerman Own (C) And (C) Leaps; Finerman’s Firm Is Short (IYR), (IJR), (MDY), (SPY); Terranova Owns (BNI), (CME), (RIMM), (VLO), (SA), (FCX), (GOOG), (INTC), (IYT),  (XLF), (SU), (YHOO); Terranova Is Long September Crude Oil $154 Call; Terranova Is Short September Crude Oil $130 Put; Terranova Is Short September Crude Oil $130 Call

Watching the earnings movers this morning BG, QCOM, TUP, AMZN, ESI, BIDU. Again going to let the market range in the morning and keeping my eye on oil prices. FSLR power plant contract should give it a good boost.
Market slightly overbought in the short term but is showing good strength by moving higher and consolidating at higher levels rather than giving it all up quickly, this rally is led by the financials and i will be focusing on that area closely. Pick plays with a high probability of success, have focus and patience, plan the trade and trade the plan, run technicals through support and resistance! Great Luck and HappyTrading!
Down below is our 2 CNBC portfolios and how they finished the contest. We were as high as #143 during the contest and constantly had both portfolios in the top 1000. We went all in on the airliners last week with $2 million and we undoubtedly would be #1 and the grand champion if the contest ran for only one week more because we would have made an extra million on the airliners putting our portfolio over $3 million not bad for 10 weeks!!! :) Missed it by a hair! Literally by 2 days! OOOHHH! As Vince Lombardi once said, “We didn’t lose, we just ran out of time.” We will probably end up in the top 100 and that is still something to be proud of out of several hundred thousand portfolios! Til next time CNBC!
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Market Rally Continues; Techs Lead: SPX, Nasdaq, CME, ISRG, BAC, BIDU, AMZN, QCOM

The market was solid all day today, and kept the rally going. Commodities were once again weak and the oil prices fell further. Techs led the market, although biotechs took a breather. CME, mentioned yesterday, went up another +6.65%, or $24.35, closing above $390! Among our members, angar held on to this trade and got a 3 bagger, or +400% profit:
angar
Posted July 23, 2008 at 12:36 pm | Permalink (Edit)
CME - Thanks [Happy]. Kudos to you because I entered the trade because of your thoughts and insight about CME. I was bit conservative by going for Sep 40 which is a 3 bagger as of now

ISRG, also mentioned yesterday, opened at $313 and continued to rise all day to close at $331, up +18.16% for the day! ILMN jumped +9.33% on yesterday’s good earnings. We cashed out on our BAC trade from yesterday for a +104.7% gain. Then, we went back in on the same trade after the intraday pullback and scalped another +10%. We cashed out on these August 30 calls (BACHF) as high as $4.5. The day high was at $5 and the options closed at $4.3.

After the market, BIDU reported an +87% surge on its quarter earnings and sent its stock flying up more than +13%, or almost $38!! AMZN announced quarterly profits that more than doubled!! Its shares were up +8.38% in AH trading. QCOM reported solid earnings, but, the big news was that it settled the legal battles with Nokia with Nokia agreeing to pay QCOM an upfront payment and ongoing royalties. QCOM shares flew higher by more than +18% after the report, trading at $53!! QCOM’s 52-wk high was at $50.82.

The Dow was up +29.88 points; SPX added +5.19 points; Nasdaq gained +21.92 points:
indices_7_23_08.jpg
VIX closed slightly higher at 21.31. SOX (semiconductors) bounced +1.43% while INX2 (Internet) added +0.85%. Commodities and related sectors were weak again: GLD (gold) -2.68%; SLV (silver) -3.2%; USO (oil) -3.19%; UNG (natural gas) -3.71%; MOO (agriculture) -2.22%; XME (metals and mining) -3.45%. FXI (Chinese ADRs) advanced +1.29%.

SPX
spx_7_23_08.jpg
SPX added +5.19 points to close at 1282.19. It tested the 30-day MA today and closed above the 1280 level. Its MACD went higher.

Nasdaq
nasdaq_7_23_08.jpg
Nasdaq gained +21.92 points to close at 2325.88. It tested 2350 today and closed right at its 30-day MA. The MACD continued up!

With solid earnings from BIDU, AMZN, and QCOM, the market should get some upside excitement at the open tomorrow. Yesterday, I said that the market should test the 30-day MA soon. It did that today. If VIX goes below 21 and stays under, the market shold be able to rise and hold above the 30-day MA. We might get another day of rally tomorrow and see some profit-taking near the end of the day, or on Friday, before the weekend.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

Premarket Analysis for 7/23- Upgrades/Downgrades, Gappers, Actionable Calls

Submitted By Optiondragon

From Briefing.com
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Periodicals Wrap-Up for Wednesday, July 23rd
WALL STREET JOURNAL: The Wall Street Journal’s “Fund Track” reported that some banks struggling to raise capital may sell their money management units. National City Corp. (NCC) is selling its Allegiant Funds, Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) is considering selling its Fifth Third Asset Management, and KeyCorp (KEY) will possibly sell its Victory Capital Management unit…The wall Street Journal also reported that Andrew Cuomo, the New York state Attorney General, is preparing to file civil securities-fraud charges against UBS AG (UBS), possibly as early as this week. Sources said the lawsuit may include allegations of malfeasance by senior UBS executives…BLOOMBERG: Bloomberg reported that money manager John Paulson, the owner of Paulson & Co., is launching a hedge fund that will provide capital to financial firms which have been damaged by the housing crisis. Paulson, who wants to open the fund by December, used bets against the U.S. housing market to help him earn $3.7B in 2007…After U.S. lawmakers reached a deal on legislation to alleviate the housing recession, the House of Representatives will today vote on a rescue plan for Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE). Representative Barney Frank said that the package, which increases the likelihood Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will get the authority to inject capital into the two, is “fully acceptable,” Bloomberg reported…REUTERS: Oil trading losses forced SemGroup LP, which used to be America’s 12th largest private company, to declare bankruptcy yesterday. Reuters noted that SemGroup LP’s parent company is SemGroup Energy Partners (SGLP)…

Some banks consider selling their money management units-WSJ
The Wall Street Journal’s “Fund Track” reports that some banks struggling to raise capital may sell their money management units. National City Corp. (NCC) is selling its Allegiant Funds, Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) is considering selling its Fifth Third Asset Management, and KeyCorp (KEY) will possibly sell its Victory Capital Management unit.

House is ready to vote on Fannie, Freddie rescue measure-Bloomberg
The U.S. House of Representatives is slated to vote today on a bailout plan for Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE), after members of Congress reached a deal on the legislation. House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank, a Democrat, said the proposal is acceptable to the Department of the Treasury. The deal increases the chances that Congress will grant Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson the power to inject capital into the companies this week.

Saharan sun power could provide electricity to Europe-Guardian
Arnulf Jaeger-Walden of the European Commission’s Institute for Energy, speaking at the Euroscience Open Forum in Barcelona, says that solar power from the Sahara could one day generate enough solar energy to supply all of Europe with clean electricity and may also help cut Europe’s carbon emissions. In order to meet all of Europe’s energy needs, Jaeger-Walden says this would require the capture of just 0.3% of the light falling on the area’s deserts, adding that a new supergrid would allow countries like Denmark to export wind energy at times of surplus supply and import from other green sources.

As Spain pulls back on solar subsidies companies look to the exits-WSJ
For a number of years solar companies have flocked to Spain because of government subsidies. But beginning in October, Spain will put a cap on the amount of megawatts. A final decision is expected next month, reports the Wall Street Journal. “Everybody targeted Spain because of the tariffs. Now, everybody is doing an aboutface,” says Brion Tanous with Merriman Curhan Ford. Instead, companies are expected to move to markets in Greece, Italy, France and South Korea.

Apple’s Jobs says health is “fine”-NY Times
As concerns about his health have weighed on the company’s stock price, Apple (AAPL) CEO Steve Jobs has told a number of associates that talks of “ill health” have been “greatly exaggerated”. Jobs has reassured several people that, four years after a successful operation to treat pancreatic cancer, he is doing well and is cancer-free. Apple shares closed at $166.29 on Monday, opening lower and recovering on Tuesday at $162.02, a 2.6% drop.

Google said to be in final talks to buy Digg-TechCrunch
TechCrunch has heard from multiple sources that Google (GOOG) is in final talks to acquire Digg. The acquisition, which will put Digg under the Google News brand, is said to be in the $200M range. The sources believe it may be a few weeks before the deal closes, but say the two recently signed a letter of intent.

Oil trading losses push SemGroup into bankruptcy-Reuters
Oil trading losses forced SemGroup LP, which used to be America’s 12th largest private company, to declare bankruptcy yesterday. The company bought short crude futures positions, and was badly hurt when oil prices rose sharply. SemGroup LP’s parent company is SemGroup Energy Partners L.P. (SGLP).

Memc Electronic Mat-WFR: View risk/reward as favorable at current levels@AMTR
American Technology believes downside is limited at current levels with consensus estimates below guidance and the valuation depressed. Firm notes WFR reports after the close today.

Yahoo-YHOO: Company’s growth lags behind its peers, maintain Hold@GABE
After Yahoo reported that its Q2 EPS fell year-over-year, Gabelli notes that the company is growing more slowly than Google (GOOG) and Microsoft’s (MSFT) online division. However, the firm thinks that a deal with Microsoft could raise Yahoo’s value.

VMware-VMW: Expect shares to bottom in low $30’s, maintain Neutral@COWN

U.S. equity futures continue to be strong as crude oil falls
U.S. stock futures this morning continue to hold their gains as oil futures drop. The Department of Energy is scheduled to release its inventory data at 10:35 am ET. The survey is calling for a crude inventory draw-down of 600,000, a gasoline build-up of 200,000, and a distillate build-up of 2.5M. Before the oil data, crude continued its slide, losing $1.92 to $126.50 a barrel. Gold futures were also sharply down and the U.S. dollar rose against the yen, indicators of a rising risk appetite. The S&P 500 futures rose 8.30 points to 1,282 and the Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 12.8 points to 1,836. Dow industrial futures were up 46 points to 11,610.

Regions Financial-RF: Balance sheet to be impacted by NIM compression N-T@FBRC
FBRC decreased their 2008/09 EPS significantly with their price target reduced to $10 from $11. The firm does not believe there will be any positive catalysts in the future until there is an improve or stabilization in credit in the southeastern part of the country. Earnings are expected to be impacted negatively by continued credit deterioration, while in the N-T, share price appreciation will be limited. Reiterate Underperform rating.

Illumina-ILMN target raised to $125 from $108, reiterate Buy@DBAB
Deutsche Bank raised their target following the upside in the quarter and expects the stock to trade up 5%-10% today on the increased guidance.

Peabody Energy-BTU believes tight global supplies, strong demand to continue

BB&T-BBT says pension plan buys 2.45M shares of stock for approx $52.9M

Urban Outfitters-URBN: Due to strong business trends, buy on weakness@FBRC
FBRC believes positive catalysts for the stock will be comp data point on 8/7 and earnings call on 8/14. The firm has maintained their $38 target price and FY08/FY09 EPS estimates, which they believe are conservative, and also believes there is room for gross margin and ongoing SG&A improvement. Outperform rating. :

Baidu.com gains market share in China over Google-Dow Jones
According to research firm Analysys International, Baidu.com (BIDU) expanded its market share lead over Google (GOOG) in China during Q2.

AT&T says 3G iPhone sales double vs. prior launch after just 12 days.

Biogen Idec-BIIB target raised to $78 from $74, reiterate Buy@BOFA
Banc of America raised their estimates following the upside in the quarter and found the Tysabri results encouraging.

U.S. Educational Services upgraded to Positive from Neutral@LEHM

PNC Financial-PNC upgraded to Buy from Neutral@GSCO
Target to $80 from $72.

Wyeth-WYE reports Q2 EPS 91c vs. consensus of 87c
Reports Q2 revenue $5.9B vs. consensus of $5.69B. ales of Effexor also increased in the second quarter due primarily to price increases. ZOSYN(R) sales also increased in the quarter. These increases in net revenue were offset, in part, by declining Protonix sales due to ongoing generic competition.
Wyeth-WYE raises FY08 EPS $3.47-$3.55 vs. consensus of $3.45

Onyx Pharmaceuticals-ONXX downgraded to Underperform from Neutral@MLCO

thinkorswim Group-SWIM: Believe July looks like another record month@MERI
Merriman believes SWIM’s July is shaping up to be strong with options trading volume for the industry trending up about 30% from June. They think SWIM continues to outperform OptionXpress (OXPS) and recommends investors buy the stock ahead of its Q2 results.

Baidu.com-BIDU: Checks indicate a modest beat for Q2@RBCM
RBC Capital’s checks indicate a modest beat for to BIDU’s top and bottom line. The firm said BIDU was aggressive in adding partners and that TAC should continue to growth as a percentage of revenue. The firm expects Q3 guidance to be conservative given the current operating environment. Shares are Outperform rated

Biogen Idec-BIIB: Strong 2Q08 EPS upside on higher-than-expected revenues@BARD
BARD increased their 2008/09 EPS estimates and raised their price target to $67. The firm is concerned Avonex and Tysabri may be affected by L-T pressure from the competition of other developmental MS compounds and despite the near and intermediate term outlook improvement, the shares recent strength reflects this. Therefore, the firm is staying on the sidelines.

Jim Cramer’s “Mad Money”
Cramer said Oil is all that matters right now, and the price of oil is on the decline. Cramer said the market was up because of the decline in price of oil and gas. Investors shrugged off the earnings disappointments from tech and financial giants Apple (AAPL), Texas Instruments (TXN), SanDisk (SNDK) and American Express (AXP). “Oil is down to $128 a barrel and I think it is going to $120,” says Cramer. Cramer said he is predicting gasoline at $3.50 a gallon if oil prices fall to $120 a barrel. The last time oil was at $126 a barrel, the S&P 500, which represents the broadest view of the market, was at 1,403. That’s about 10% higher than the index is now. Cramer tells viewers, “We are 6.5% too low in the S&P as of this evening and market is heading up there.” Consumer companies such as Kimberly-Clark (KMB) are likely to benefit, he said, since that is exactly the kind of defensive play that big institutional investors like to put their money into. With lower oil and gas prices and the new-found health in some of the banks, Cramer says “This market is a buy.” Chesapeake Energy (CHK) is a buy as natural gas prices go lower. Next, Cramer said Campbell Soup (CPB) is looking better, and is a possible recession-proof play. General Mills (GIS) and Kellogg (K) are at or near their 52-week high, which means Campbell looks cheap and institutional money could flood to the stock and raise its price. Cramer also advised a listener to sell Kraft (KFT) and recommended Tyson Foods (TSN). Then, Cramer said that there is no reason to believe that bad news at American Express (AXP) is bad news for JP Morgan (JPM) and other banks. “American Express has unfairly brought down all banks. Use it as an opportunity to buy,” he said. Cramer suggested Wachovia (WB), Bank of America (BAC), US Bancorp (USB) and JP Morgan as his four strong financial plays. MAD MAIL: Annaly Capital Mgmt (NLY), Cramer lost a of of money in the names and would not recommend it. Cramer suggested listeners look at Google (GOOG) as an attractive trade, in light of Yahoo’s (YHOO) weak earnings. And instead of Wachovia, consider US Bancorp for their trade. LIGHTNING ROUND: (Bullish) DIS; SPLS; TRLG. (Bearish - recommended selling) UAL; VE; BTU; ABD; ODP; CNB

Bush will sign housing bill into law, White House says-Reuters

Fast Money Position Recap: Jeff thinks T is a sell, Joe likes Gold Futures, Pete likes WMT long, Karen likes XLF as a quick short.
Najarian Owns (AAPL), (AMLN), (C), (CHK), (ETFC), (TSO), (ICO): Najarian Owns (CSCO) Calls, (MRK) Calls, (YHOO) Calls, (HUN) Calls; Macke Owns (GS), (WMT), (MSFT): Finerman Owns (GS); Finerman’s Firm Owns (MSFT), (SUN), (TSO), (VLO), (M); Finerman’s Firm And Finerman Own (C) And (C) Leaps; Finerman’s Firm Is Short (BBT), (WB), (IYR), (IJR), (IWM), (SPY), (MDY); Finerman’s Firm Owns (HUN) Calls: Terranova Owns (BNI), (SA), (VLO), (RIMM), (CME), (FCX), (GOOG), (INTC), (IYT),  (XLF), (SU), (YHOO); Terranova Is Long September Crude Oil $154 Calls; Terranova Is Short September Crude Oil $130 Puts; Terranova Is Short September Crude Oil $130 Calls.

Financial longs paid off handsomely yesterday for our members as we went long BAC, USB, GS. The short squeeze in some of these names is amazing and were due. As i’ve said before the short financial trade was overcrowded and has been and still is unwinding due to sheer volume. Don’t believe me? Look at PNC. Anyone shorting PNC for the past 3 months has a position underwater. Demand has a strong advantage over supply right now thus these strong squeezes.

Market Fights Back As Oil Continues To Slide: SPX, Nasdaq, AAPL, CME, ICE, GS, BAC, PRU, ISRG, ILMN

The market started out weak today, pressured by earnings from AAPL, TXN, and AXP. But, after the gap-down open, the market climbed all day and accelerated upwards into the close. AAPL traded down nearly $20 in the morning, and ended down only $4.27 at $162.02. One of our brilliant members, Makemoney, jumped into AAPL calls early in the morning:
Makemoney
Posted July 22, 2008 at 6:42 am | Permalink (Edit)
Bought AAPL calls.
and rode it higher $13-$15 on the stock! Great trade, Makemoney!!

This morning, CME reported good earnings and saw its shares rise all day to close up nearly $41, or $12.51%! Yesterday, I said on the member board:
HappyTrading
Posted July 21, 2008 at 8:09 am | Permalink (Edit)
CME
trading lightly before earnings tomorrow. Daily chart shows that if the reaction is good, this can easily go to $400.

I got into August 360 calls at $8.9 and sold them at $15. Could have held on to these a little longer for quick double, but, I’m happy with a +68.5% gain:
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These options traded as high as $22.2 and closed at $21.5. It does look like CME wants to go to $400 from here. So, I’ll be waiting to make more plays on this. Given that I was in CME, I published a trade on ICE today and cashed it out for an intraday gain of +31%:
7/22/08
sell to close
ICE ($96.5)
ICEHS, Aug 95 calls, at $8, +31.1%

buy to open
ICE ($92.69)
ICEHS, Aug 95 calls, at $6.1 (closed)

These options closed at $8.6. We’ll see if more opportunities present themselves tomorrow, as I think ICE could have a lot more room to recover also.

The financials got stronger throughout the day and helped pushing the market higher. GS added +4.02%. BAC jumped +13.27% (We started a new trade on this and it’s nearly a bagger.). PRU was also strong, gaining +8.22%. PNC hopped more than +10% again, almost completely reversing the 2-month fall in just 5 sessions!! Here are some of the intraday comments made on our member board:
optiondragon
Posted July 22, 2008 at 8:11 am | Permalink (Edit)
Short AMZN hawk and long GS, looking for longs

optiondragon
Posted July 22, 2008 at 8:31 am | Permalink (Edit)
Focusing on financials..GS, XLF, PNC, STT, CMA, NTRS, BBT, MTB

HappyTrading
Posted July 22, 2008 at 8:31 am | Permalink (Edit)
BAC ($30.45)
BACHF, Aug 30 calls, bought at $2.1

HappyTrading
Posted July 22, 2008 at 10:22 am | Permalink (Edit)
PRU
looking strong.

Ktbbq
Posted July 22, 2008 at 1:05 pm | Permalink (Edit)
Thanks for the BAC calls this morning. Got in at $1.93. Closed $3.65. 89% today, almost a bagger!

You can see these comments throughout the day as they are made!

After the market, ISRG destroyed the estimates with its earnings! Its stock was up $32.77, or +11.69%, in AH trading! ILMN reported great earnings, boosted guidance, and announced a 2-for-1 stock split! ILMN traded higher by $3.5 after the report.

The Dow closed up +135.16 points; SPX added +17 points; and Nasdaq gained +24.43 points:
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VIX was not able to get much higher than 24 today and ended down 8.11% to close at 21.18. The commodities and related sectors were weak: GLD (gold) -2.17%; SLV (silver) -2.57%; USO (oil) -3.14%; XME (metals and mining) -3.79%; OIH (oil services) -2.67%. XLE (energy) slipped another 3.32%. XLF (financials) rose +8.39% while HGX (housing) added +4.6%. BTK (biotechs) advanced +2.69%. FXI (Chinese ADRs) was higher by +1.67%.

SPX
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SPX added +17 points to close at 1277. It closed above its 20-day MA and just beneath the 1280 level. The MACD continued higher.

Nasdaq
nasdaq_7_22_08.jpg
Nasdaq gained +24.43 points to close at 2303.96. It also closed above its 20-day MA and above 2300! Its MACD glided up, as well.

This weekend, in my Market Forecast, I said, “For the new week, as long as the financial sector continues to recover to the upside, the overall market should do the same.” The market was very impressive today with the financials brushing aside the disappointing earnings report from AXP and pushed higher. The market is now solidly above the 20-day MA. It does look the market could test the 30-day MA soon.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

Premarket Analysis for 7/22- Upgrades/Downgrades, Gappers, Actionable Calls

Submitted By Optiondragon

From Briefing.com
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Periodicals Wrap-Up for Tuesday, July 22nd
WALL STREET JOURNAL: The books of Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) are being examined by the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to review their financial condition, according to the Wall Street Journal…The Wall Street Journal also reported that the Chevy Volt, an electric car from General Motors (GM), is slated to roll out in two years and it received a major boost from 36 utilities that operate in 40 states who agreed to work together to make the plug-in vehicle possible. Among the utilities are American Electric Power (AEP), Consolidated Edison (ED), Duke Energy (DUK), and Edison International (EIX)…FINANCIAL TIMES: Struggling mortgage lender Paragon is reportedly in talks with Blackstone (BX) about a potential takeover by Blackstone, the Financial Times reported…NEW YORK TIMES: The New York Times reported that TiVo (TIVO) will today introduce a “product purchase” feature in partnership with Amazon.com (AMZN). Under TiVo’s plan, the television remote control will be turned into a tool for buying products that are advertised and promoted on talk shows and commercials…

Blackstone is in talks about buying a mortgage company-FT
Blackstone (BX) is negotiating a possible takeover of troubled mortgage lender Paragon (PGMT). The talks are an indication that private equity firms are still interested in buying mortgage companies.
Good news for the market and for the mortgage business, let’s hope PE firms pull the trigger. That would boost the market.

Woodward Governor-WGOV still has major growth opportunities@GABE
After Woodward reported better than expected results for its Q3, Gabelli believes the company can grow because it can attract customers who must operate their aircraft engine or industrial and power generation equipment cleaner cheaper and more reliably. The firm maintained their Buy rating.

Apple-AAPL lowering estimates and target, maintain Buy@GSCO
Goldman lowered AAPL estimates citing lower gross margins but said they believe management’s guidance will prove conservative. Target to $200 from $220. The firm notes that all 3 major product initiatives are working and maintains their Buy rating.

Apple-AAPL: Quarter suggests product momentum is intact@PIPR
Piper maintains a Buy rating despite saying the margin guidance was a “shock” as they believe the Street will likely look past margin guidance and focus on product transitions by the end of the September quarter.

XTO Energy-XTO reports Q2 EPS $1.13 vs. consensus of $1.05
Reports Q2 revenue $1.94B vs. consensus $1.85B.
XTO Energy-XTO acquires additional $1.3B in properties
XTO Energy Inc. announced that it has entered into definitive agreements with multiple parties to purchase producing properties located in its Eastern and San Juan Regions and acreage positions in the Marcellus, Fayetteville, Barnett, and Haynesville shales, for a total of about $1.3 billion, of which $1 billion closed during the second quarter. From the producing properties, XTO Energy’s internal engineers estimate proved reserves to be 185 billion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent of which approximately 60% are proved developed. Starting July 1, these acquisitions add 20 million cubic feet of natural gas equivalent per day to the Company’s production base. In the high potential shale plays, the Company added more than 280,000 net undeveloped acres to its inventory for future development, primarily in the Marcellus and Fayetteville.

U.S. equity futures still point to a lower open
The futures markets, while pointing to a lower open this morning, have moved up based on comments from Treasury Secretary Paulson who is speaking now in New York. Paulson is asking the public for patience with the housing and market woes as the U.S. is “on [the] right path” to end the market disruptions. Gold futures rose 1% this morning as investors seek a safe haven from worries in the financial sector and the economy. Gold for August delivery gained $9.30 to $973 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The DJIA is down -77 points to 11,388, the Nasdaq is down -30 points to 1,797, and the S&P is down -9.3 points to 1,252.

Genentech-DNA: Expect deal to go through at premium to $89/share@RBCM
RBC believes an acquisition price in the $95-$100/share range is reasonable and maintains an Outperform rating on DNA shares.

Apple-AAPL: Recommend building core positions on the weakness@THNK
ThinkPanmure believes lowering expectations bodes well for the stock longer term and maintains a Buy rating. The firm lowered their target to $200 from $225.

Apple-AAPL: See good buying opportunity, reiterate Outperform@JMPS
After Apple reported results for its Q3 that JMP Securities views as solid, the firm increased their market share estimates but reduced their gross margin estimates. JMP Securities thinks the company’s lower than expected guidance creates a good buying opportunity.

Sohu.com-SOHU: Expect Q2 results to beat consensus by wide margin@PALI
Pali Research thinks SOHU will handily top Q2 consensus estimates due to strong performance of its brand advertising and game TLBB. They also believe both segments could drive strong Q3 results and raised their 2008 estimate to $3.24 from $3.07. Shares remain Buy rated.

Intrepid Potash-IPI initiated with an Outperform, target $80@BMOC

Ctrip.com-CTRP upgraded to Positive from Neutral@SUSQ
Susquehanna upgraded CTRP based on valuation. Target $50.

Freeport McMoRan-FCX reports Q2 EPS $2.25 vs. consensus of $2.43
Reports Q2 revenue $5.44B vs. consensus $5.26B.
Freeport McMoRan-FCX increases dividend to $2
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold announced that its Board of Directors has authorized an increase in its annual common stock dividend from $1.75 per share to $2.00 per share. The dividend will be payable quarterly ($0.50 per share) beginning with the November 2008 dividend payment.
FCX expands share repurchase program
FCX announced today that its Board of Directors approved an increase in its open market share purchase program to 30 million shares from the prior authorization of 20 million shares. The timing of future purchases is dependent upon many factors including the company’s operating results, its cash flow and financial position, its future expansion plans, copper prices, the market price of the common shares and general economic and market conditions.

Apple-AAPL: Would be buyers on the weakness@OPCO
After Apple reported results for its Q3 that Oppenheimer views as solid but gave gross margin guidance for its 2009 that Oppenheimer views as disappointing, the firm notes that Macs continue to increase their market share, and the firm expects Apple to sell 4.9M iPhones in its Q4.

Hess Corp-HES: See attractive entry point at current levels@JPMS
JP Morgan believes the current share price factors in little upside from the company’s exploration activity over the next 12 months. The firm reiterates an Overweight rating on the stock.

ImClone-IMCL: Expect in-line Q2 results, positive Erbitux data@STFG
Stanford believes that positive Erbitux survival data in the next few months will support label expansion and market penetration by the company. the firm reiterated their Buy rating.

Apple-AAPL target lowered to $180 from $190, reiterate Buy@BOFA
Banc of America was disappointed by AAPL’s margin guidance but would be buyers on the weakness as management is likely being conservative.

Solar: Believe Spain is tracking to worst case scenario@SBSH
Citigroup points out Spain’s Ministry of Industry sent a draft of the PV Decree to National Energy Commission with the terms unchanged from the Ministry’s initial proposal in July, a call for a feed-in-tariff for ground-mount and rooftop with an annual installation cap of 300MW. Citigroup believes this is not a “huge negative surprise” but points out solar stocks have rallied in recent days partially around hope of a 500MW.

Agnico-Eagle-AEM upgraded to Buy from Hold@TDSI
TD Newcrest upgraded AEM based on higher metals forecast.

American Express-AXP downgraded to Perform from Outperform@OPCO
Oppenheimer downgraded AXP citing the weakening consumer credit environment.

Cognizant-CTSH: Cautious on shares ahead of earnings@SBSH
Citigroup believes the potential for lower guidance when CTSH reports poses a negative near-term catalyst. They lowered their target to $42 from $52 but maintain a Buy rating.

Apple-AAPL volatility Elevated into lower Outlook & Steve Jobs
AAPL is recently down $17.19 to $149.10 in pre-open trading. AAPL expects Q4 EPS of $1.00 versus consensus of $1.24. Deutsche Bank say’s “Regarding Steve’s health, mgmt said ‘he has no plans to leave Apple and his health is a private matter’. While the topic is delicate, we believe the absence of a straightforward denial of health issues will increase speculation of worst case scenario.” AAPL August option implied volatility of 56 is above its 26-week average of 49 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Apple-AAPL: View the pullback as a buying opportunity@SBSH
Citigroup believes AAPL’s reported “stellar” Q2 results, and attributes the weakness to conservative guidance and management’s refusal to comment on Steve Jobs’ health. They view the weakness as a buying opportunity and reiterate a Buy rating.

Biogen Idec-BIIB reports Q2 EPS 91c vs. consensus of 85c
Reports Q2 revenue $993.4M vs. consensus of $962.61M.
Biogen Idec-BIIB raises FY08 EPS view to above $3.50 vs. consensus of $3.40

Quest Diagnostics-DGX reports Q2 EPS 83c vs. consensus of 78c
Reports Q2 revenue $1.84B vs. consensus of $1.84B.

Apple-AAPL: View the sell-off as a buying opportunity@SOLE
Soleil believes AAPL’s guidance creates a buying opportunity and maintains a Buy rating with a $200 target.

Regions Financial-RF reports Q2 EPS 30c vs. consensus of 42c
Regions Financial-RF lowers quarterly dividend to 10c from 38c

Gilead Sciences-GILD removed from Conviction Buy List; maintain Buy@GSCO
Note that AMLN was added to the list.
Amylin Pharma-AMLN added to Conviction Buy List; maintain Buy@GSCO
Note that GILD was removed from the list.

CME Group-CME reports Q2 EPS $3.93 vs. consensus of $3.86
Reports Q2 revenue $563.2M vs. consensus of $568.74M.

ELN /WYE hosts a joint conference call at 7pm on 7/29
Elan and Wyeth will host a joint conference call to discuss the results from the Phase 2 Clinical Trial of bapineuzumab at 7pm on 7/29

Genzyme-GENZ: Remain buyers despite recent rally@JEFF
Jefferies remains a buyer of GENZ shares given the company’s second half of 2008 outlook and reasonable valuation. Jefferies raised their target to $90 from $84.

Monsanto-MON: Weakness on corn price concerns overdone@GSCO
Goldman said recent weakness in MON due to weaker corn prices is overdone. The analyst believes MON has been more aggressive on 2009 pricing and has raised its price target to $162 from $155. Shares are Buy rated.

American Express-AXP: Down on Earnings Miss and Weak Guidance
The shares have traded down more that (-10%) in the pre-market after the company missed earnings expectations by a wide mark and lowered forward guidance. The stock had recently broken out of its daily downtrend along with the rest of the financials last week. That breakout is now history and at current pre-market price the stock will open back down into the prior downtrend and at the lower end of that trend. Support levels to watch as potential downside objectives are at $36.60, $35.44, $34.91, $34.29, $33.75, $33.21, $32.71, $32.19, $31.71, $31.17, $30.67. Resistance based on current pre-market price is at $37.17, $37.85.

Jim Cramer’s “Mad Money”
Jim Cramer credited SEC Chairman Christopher Cox with single-handedly saving the entire financial sector, with last week’s announcement that short-sellers must borrow stock before being allowed to execute their trade. The financial stocks are being driven up by short covering, and are being kept up by good earnings. He encouraged Cox to extend the enforcement of the rules to all stocks. Cramer identified four banks that he said will still be standing after the dust settles from the recent turmoil in the financial sector. These “fortress” banks, as he called the, will survive to see 2009 and have the incredible opportunity to buy failing banks at bargain prices. Cramer said that Wells Fargo (WFC), US Bancorp (USB), Bank of America (BAC) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) all reported quarterly results that showed they will survive. These banks, he said, have worked through the bad loans and are now successfully raising capital, putting them in a position to capitalize on everyone else’s mistakes. Cramer would be a buyer of only US Bancorp right now, as it’s the only one that’s fallen far enough to make him comfortable. He would be a buyer of the other three only on weakness. Cramer named three positives taking the bank stocks higher. First, all four banks reported better-than-expected earnings. Second, Congress has finally begun moving on a housing bill to offer relief to homeowners and banks alike. Lastly, the federal government is considering lifting antitrust rules, making it easier for larger banks to begin buying up the smaller, failing ones. Next, Cramer said Roche’s bid to acquire Genentech (DNA) confirms his thesis that biotech stocks are right for this market. With the U.S. dollar so weak, he said, it makes sense for European companies and others to acquire U.S.-based companies. Cramer said Forest Labs (FRX) might appear be a tempting way to play the drug stocks, but advised against buying shares. He also advised against building a position in either ImClone (IMCL) or Genzyme (GENZ). Cramer instead recommended shares of generic drug maker Watson (WPI) as the next possible takeover target. He likes WPI for its 60 new drug applications pending at the FDA, and recommended buying shares on any weakness in the sector. LIGHTNING ROUND: (Bullish) WIN; VZ; CTL; MMM; NXY. (Bearish) OSK; AAPL; OTTR

Fast money position recap: Macke Owns (WMT), (HAS), (ATVID), (GS), (DIS); Najarian Owns (AMLN), (TSO); Najarian Owns (AAPL) And (AAPL) Puts; Najarian Owns (FHN) Puts; Najarian Owns (MRK) Calls, (YHOO) Calls, (CSCO) Calls; Finerman Owns (GS); Finerman’s Firm And Finerman Own (C) And (C) Leaps; Finerman’s Firm And Finerman Own (PDE); Finerman’s Firm Owns (GE), (MRK), (MSFT), (PPH), (PFE), (SUN), (TSO), (VLO), (AXP); Finerman’s Firm Is Short (IYR), (IJR), (MDY), (SPY)

Terranova Owns (RIMM), (GOOG), (YHOO), (INTC), (VLO), (IYT), (CME), (BNI), (FCX),  (XLF), (SU); Terranova Is Long Crude Oil Sept. $154 Call; Terranova Is Short Crude Oil Sept. $130 Call; Terranova Is Short Crude Oil Sept. $130 Put

Keeping nimble again today and looking for short term trades. Market showing weakness from all the bad earnings reports, let’s see how the market holds up. Pick plays with a high probability of success, have focus and patience, plan the trade and trade the plan, Great Luck and HappyTrading!
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Commodities Bounce! SPX, Nasdaq, POT, MOS, AGU, HES, CLR, SLB, FLR, MEE, PCX, AAPL, TXN, AXP

The market was pretty flat all day. Financials and techs took a breather, while commodity-related sectors bounced. Metals, energy, oil, and agriculture were all strong today. MOS led the fertilizer group, rising almost $12, or +9.38%; POT added +6.52%, and AGU gained +6.56%. In the energy sectors: HES went up +6.26; CLR rebounded +5.04%; SLB kept its winning streak after its earnings report, adding +5.5%; FLR advanced +5.16%. Coals were also hot: MEE +11.64%; BTU +8%; CNX +8.36%, PCX +10.98%.

The technology stocks held on well before AAPL’s earnings report. But, after the market, AAPL shares dropped almost 10%!! Although its quarterly report was strong, its outlook did not impress the investors. TXN missed its earnings estimates and the guidance was below consensus. TXN shares fell more than 11% in AH trading. AXP’s quarterly earnings were also worse than expected. AXP shares tumbled 11.37% after the report.

The Dow lost 29.23 points; SPX slid 0.68 points; Nasdaq slipped 3.25 points:
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VIX closed just above 23. BTK (biotechs) was strong on DNA’s buyout news. XME added +5.15%. GLD (gold) was up +1.01% while SLV (silver) gained +1.45%. USO (oil) bounced +2.14% and XLE (energy) garnered +2.99%. OIH (oil services) hopped almost +4%. MOO (agriculture) rose +3.84%. FXI (Chinese ADRs) advanced +1.07%.

SPX
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SPX slid 0.68 points to close at 1260. It closed just below its 20-day MA. The MACD went higher.

Nasdaq
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Nasdaq lost 3.25 points to close at 2279.53. It also closed below its 20-day MA. Its MACD was also higher.

Although the market held things up pretty well today, some big earning misses in after-hours will likely put pressure on the market tomorrow. AAPL, TXN, AXP all went lower after their quarterly reports. For Nasdaq, its 10-day MA had already been rising and is very close to its 20-day MA. So, just a slight drop will push it under its 10-day MA (currently at around 2261). SPX’s 10-day MA is at around 1247. We’ll be watching to see how well the 10-day MAs hold up. VIX will likely bounce tomorrow. Rising above 25 will give it more room to go, which will not be good for the overall market. This weekend, I talked about gold and silver, which seem to be ready to go back up again. GLD, SLV, XAU, GDX, AEM, and PAAS should be interesting to keep our eyes on.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

Premarket Analysis for 7/21- Upgrades/Downgrades, Gappers, Actionable Calls

Submitted By Optiondragon

From Briefing.com
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Periodicals Wrap-Up for Monday, July 21st
WALL STREET JOURNAL: People with the matter said that Ken Wilson, Goldman Sachs Group’s (GS) most senior financial-institutions broker, will temporarily exit the firm, the Wall Street Journal reported, in an effort to advise Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on how to resolve the country’s banking crisis…FINANCIAL TIMES: The American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees, a union with a stake in Citigroup (C) called for the financial services company to break itself up. The Financial Times reported that the demand will almost definitely be rejected by Citigroup…NEW YORK TIMES: Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s plan for rescuing Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) calls for the creation of a new regulatory agency that would seek to assert more stringent control over the banks and lessen the damage they could cause to the American financial system, the New York Times reported…DAILY TELEGRAPH: The Daily Telegraph reported that BP (BP) blocked a $1.8B dividend payment to its Russian partners in the TNK-BP joint venture…PAIDCONTENT.ORG: According to paidContent.org, now that its cash on hand exceeds its market cap, speculation that Napster (NAPS) could be a takeover target heated up…

Weekly additions to the Investors Business Daily-100
The following are additions to the Investors Business Daily- 100 list for the week of July 18: Research In Motion (RIMM), New Oriental Education & Tech.(EDU), China Medical Tech (CMED), Colfax Corp. (CFX), Sadia SA (SDA), Activision Blizzard (ATVD), ABB Ltd, (ABB), Mindray Medical (MR), Valmont Industries (VMI), Amphenol Corp (APH), True Religion Apparel (TRLG), Gulfmark Offshore (GLF), Microsemi (MSCC), Cash America Intl. (CSH), Buenaventura Comp ADS (BVN), Cameron Intl. (CAM), Buckle Inc (BKE), HUB Group (HUBG), Ametek Inc. (AME), Cummins (CMI),Fluor (FLR), smith International (SII), Gulf Island Fabrication (GIFI)

Weekly subtractions from the Investor’s Business Daily-100
The following are subtractions from the Investors Business Daily-100 list for the week of July 18: Southwestern Energy (SWN), Hess Corp. (HES), Companhia Siderurgic (SID), Quicksilver Resources (KWK), Baytex Energy Trust (BTE), Berry Petroleum (BRY), Venoco (VQ), Arch Coal (ACI), Noble Energy (NBL), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Cimarex Energy (XEC), Baidu.com (BIDU), Apple (AAPL), Core Laboratories (CLB), Encana Corporation (ECA), E O G Resources (EOG), Forest Oil (FST), Plains Exploration & Production (PXP), Helmerich & Payne (HP), Schnitzer Steel (SCHN), ITC Holdings (ITC), Monsanto (MON), Psychiatric Solutions (PSYS)

Alpha Natural had held talks with other bidders prior to deal-Financial Times
As reported in the Financial Times, Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) had held talks with other foreign concerns prior to its deal with Cleveland Cliffs (CLF), like ArcelorMittal (MT). according to dealReporter. Harbinger Capital Partners, Cleveland Cliffs largest shareholder is said to be unhappy with the deal and there are Alpha Natural shareholders who think they should have gotten more, leaving shareholder approval on both sides questionable.

HSBC shares gain on report about possible investment from Chinese firm-Telegraph
A report that China Investment Corporation is negotiating a possible investment in HSBC (HBC) sent HSBC’s shares up almost 4.2% today. The report originally appeared in the Telegraph. HSBC Chairman Stephen Green is understood to have met China Investment executives several times to discuss the matter in recent months.

Biogen Idec’s Tysabri sales expected to pass $1B in 2008-WSJ
Three years after it was recalled, Biogen Idec’s (BIIB) Tysabri, used to treat multiple sclerosis and Crohn’s disease, may now become a blockbuster seller, expected to pass $1B in sales this year, according to the Wall Street Journal. The recall in 2005 was because two people died from a brain infection, and patients