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Making More Profits On the Downside! GOOG, GOOGL, APA, APC, SLB, XOM, CVX, OXY, HES, EOG

Markets are down big again today! The Dow was down over 1000 points near the open! SPX traded below 1970 in the morning, and Nasdaq fell below 4300!

Between the various products that I have on Marketfy, we took some big profits on the downside again. The GOOG puts that we bought on Friday was a big winner, which we cashed out at day high:


Just 5 contracts garnered nearly $19,000 in profits, for a +301% gain!

The Ecstatic Plays is now back above +200% and up +45.6% for 2015, while the market is down in the “correction”! Here’s today’s performance chart on the for the portfolio:

Come see what Ecstatic Plays offers and what we are trading next!

In my article last night, I pointed out that that we could “quickly” see SPX at 1900. Today, we punched below that, before bouncing higher. At today’s close, SPX finished below 1900, at 1893.21. However, the market did close on a weak note. In October 2014, SPX fell all the way down to 1820. It is quite likely that we will see 1820 to tested again!

Also, if you have not, please take a look at my article, titled “It’s Time to Migrate Out of Oil!” As I questioned in the article, are we going to see $30/barrel on oil (WTI) soon? It has already fallen to $38/barrel today. Oil has been over-drilled, over-stockpiled, and the usage is going to decrease faster and faster as renewable energy sources take over. Oil is likely going to play a much smaller part in our future energy use. While the markets tumbled, solar stocks found buyers today. Already, solar stocks are “decoupling” from oil stocks. In the past year, traders have been trading solar stocks along with oil stocks. But, that behavior will soon change. If oil continues to drop, solar stocks should hold or rise. If oil bounces, you can bet that solar stocks will rise as well. It’s time to migrate out of oil before it becomes like coal, both in our everyday living and in the stock market!

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

World Markets Tumble + Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, FAS, IGV, BTK, FDN, GS, WFC, BAC, JPM, MA, V, GOOG, GOOGL, AMZN, FB, NFLX, GILD, BIIB, CLVS, JAZZ, AMGN, CRM

Last week, world markets tumbled, as worries over China finally pushed investors to exit in panic! The Dow was down over a whopping 1000 points (-1017.65 to be exact); SPX fell 120.65 points; Nasdaq tumbled 341.85 points.

US markets were holding up well on Monday and Tuesday. But, starting on Wednesday, things started to slide. Thursday and Friday were marked by heavy selling. Tonight, at the time of this writing, Asian markets were down big again! China was down 8.45%; Hong Kong fell 4.64%; Japan lost 3.65%.

Gold traded higher for the week, closing near $1160/ounce. Oil tumbled and WTI traded below $40/barrel.

Let’s take a look at China’s Shanghai Composite Index:

The above is SSEC’s monthly chart, from December 2003 until now. As you can see, in April 2006, SSEC had its first “super jump”. In just 16 months, that bull market reached its peak. In just one year after its peak, SSEC basically came all the way back, but, not quite. This time, SSEC starting moving higher in August 2014. In ten months, it reached its peak, in June 2015. In just two months after reaching the peak, SSEC has already fallen more than half way! Assuming the history repeats itself and that SSEC falls “almost” all the way back to where it started, we could be looking at somewhere between 2700 and 2400 before this correction ends. But, the way that it is falling, we could see 2700 before the end of this year!

Now, let’s take a look at the US markets:
SPX

On Friday SPX fell 64.84 points to close at 1970.89. It daily MAs and MACD dropped sharply. If SPX also continues to drop without a pause, we could quickly see 1900!

Nasdaq

Nasdaq tumbled 171.45 points to close at 4706.04. Its daily MAs and MACD also nosedove. Nasdaq’s first support is at 4600. But, if SPX were to fall to 1900, I think Nasdaq should be around 4400 or below. For the new week…

If you’d like to read the rest of the articles, please subscribe to my Ecstatic Plays product (Click Here). Ecstatic Plays portfolio also started trading stocks, in addition to options. Please Click Here to see more details. See some of our downside trades!

Ecstatic Plays Will Now Trade Stocks!

In addition to trading options, I will now start to trade stocks in my Ecstatic Plays Portfolio as well! In a year, I have tripled this portfolio trading options only and keeping cash at above 90%!

Since I do not need to use more than 10% of my portfolio in trading options, and, Marketfy members have asked me if I would trade stocks, I will start trading stocks as well.

For my existing members, nothing will change on the options side. I will allocate about 30% of the portfolio to trade stocks. I will keep cash in the portfolio above 50%. If you are looking to trade stocks as well, I suggest you also follow the percentage guidelines. Thank you!

If you haven’t, start adding ETFs to your watch lists. Here are some of the main ETFs that I will look to trade:

YANG: China 3x Bear
YINN: China 3x Bull
SDS: Ultra Short SP500
SPY: SP500
UPRO: Ultra Long SP500
EWV: Ultra Short Japan
EPV: Ultra Short Europe
EDZ: Emerging Markets 3x Bear
DUG: Ultra Short Oil & Gas

In addition to the above ETFs, I will also trade normal stocks. I will not, however, be trading penny stocks. I do not believe in penny stocks. If I want to look for leverage, I will trade options.

To subscribe or to find out more about this product, please CLICK HERE. Come see what Ecstatic Plays offers and what we are trading next!

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

It’s Time to Migrate Out of Oil! XOM, CVX, SLB, EOG, APA, APC, NOV, OXY, RIG, DO

Oil has been falling and falling! It does not seem like it will find a support any time soon. The US Oil ETF, USO, is almost single-digit. I think it will soon need a reverse split, or else, it might lose another 30% soon. Could this mean that, before long, oil will reach $30/barrel?!

Energy paradigms are shifting around the world. Coal is already on its way out. Take a look at the coal stocks such as BTU, CNX, and JOY. How about some names that are barely trading, such as WLT, RNO, and ANR. In 2011, BTU was a $70 stock. Where is it trading now? Less than $1.5!!

While I do not think oil will fall as fast, as it will take longer for renewable energies to completely replace oil, it has already been over-drilled and the usage is about to decline faster and faster. We all know that electric and hybrid cars are becoming more and more popular. TSLA stock has skyrocketed. Will we soon see hybrid/solar planes for commercial flights?

China is making big changes in its energy policy. It has pledged to increase its total energy budget on renewable, zero-emission energy sources to 20%!

The linked article states:

“China has been also investing heavily in solar power. In 2013, it installed a record 12 gigawatts of solar power. In 2014 the country added another 12 gigawatts of solar power, reports Bloomberg News, narrowly missing its goal of 14 gigawatts.”

In one year, the biggest oil companies such as XOM and CVX have lost tremendous value. XOM is down about 30% and CVX has lost more than 40%! Smaller companies are doing worse. NOV, for example, has lost more than 50% of its market cap in just one year. Even Buffet appears to be dumping oil plays, shedding the likes of PSX and NOV.

Offshore drilling stocks such as DO and RIG will likely be worthless within the next five years. RIG is already approaching single-digit.

If these energy companies were to survive, they will probably have to invest in renewable energy sources soon. This is not just about what energy sources are more economical; it is really more about the survival of our planet, and of “us”. Governments around the world are already making stricter policies on carbon emissions, and they will likely get tougher in the years to come. When it comes down to our own survivor, you can bet that global governments will find ways to help make renewable energies economic enough to replace oil, if technology doesn’t get us there itself.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

Profiting From Market Pullback! DJI, SPX, Nasdaq, TSLA, PCLN, GOOG, GOOGL, FB, AMZN, YELP, TWTR, NFLX

Earlier this month, I wrote an article, titled “Are You Ready For A Pullback“, warning you that stocks are about to take a fall. This market held up for a little more than a week. Today, things finally broke down!

The Dow was down 358.04 points (-2.06%); SPX lost 43.88 points (-2.11%); Nasdaq tumbled 141.56 points (-2.82%).

In the first article, I said,

I do not think, however, this is all about the Fed’s intention to raise rates starting in September. I think this is more that things are just getting too overbought, technically, to be keep heading higher. We will need to see a pullback before drawing more buyers back into the market.”

Most people, now, do not think that the Fed will start raising rates in September (even though they still might). Bonds rose, which meant interest rates went down. But, markets still fell.

I also wrote,

Some people are saying that a lot of traders are still on vacation, and, when they return, stocks will rally again. I think otherwise. I think “if” the market does not pullback soon, when the traders are back from their vacation, they will drive the markets down. There is no point in buying an overbought market that is teetering on a cliff, so to speak.

Well, it is getting to the end of August. Traders who went on vacation are coming back now.

Today’s pronounced selling was something that we have not seen for a long time. We actually saw some panic towards the end. In the last 15 minutes of trading, the Dow fell about 80 points; SPX dropped about 10 points; and, Nasdaq lost about 15 points. What is more, is that SPY continued to fall in after-market!

Here are the profits that we locked in today:

The best way to trade a down market is with options, as when stocks really fall, they fall fast and often much more than we think! We should be locking in more profits tomorrow! To subscribe or to find out more about this product, please CLICK HERE. Come see what Ecstatic Plays offers and what we are trading next!

The internet sector has been holding up really well. AMZN, GOOG, and NFLX have been really strong. But, today, they all gave in. NFLX was down almost 8%! GOOG fared better than others, down just 2.13%. FB tumbled 4.98%. TWTR lost 5,83%. AMZN dropped 3.22%. YELP fell 4.91%.

So, is the market done selling? We did see some panic. Have you missed the downside? By all means, NO! Asian markets are down again, at the time of this writing. Japan’s Nikkei is finally falling as well. I think SPX will soon test 2010 to 2000.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

Weekly Wrap-Up + Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, FAS, BTK, IGV, ASHR, GS, CSCO, JNPR, ANET, FFIV, MSFT, CYBR, ADBE, BIIB, CELG, AMGN, GILD, BIDU, NTES, BABA, JASO

Markets were choppy last week and ultimately ended lower. Stocks started out the week falling. Wednesday morning had some irrational buying, which faded in the afternoon. The selling resumed on Thursday and Friday, although some buyers came in before the close.

We had a mixed week. Our LNKD calls on earnings didn’t work out. But, most of our trades were good. We traded SPY puts more than a few times, but, we are out of those for now. Here are the closed trades for the week:


For the week, the Dow was down 316.48 points; SPX fell 26.27 points; Nasdaq dropped 84.74 points. Gold was little changed, still hanging above $1090/ounce. Oil fell further to around $44/barrel. At the time of this writing, Asian markets were mixed. Interestingly, China is up, even though its export numbers were down. Let’s take a look at the US markets:

SPX

On Friday, SPX fell 5.99 points to close at 2077.57. It fell below its daily MAs and its MACD went lower.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq fell 12.9 points to close at 5043.54. It also closed below its daily MAs. Its MACD dropped.

Both SPX and Nasdaq closed below their respective daily MAs. For the new week.

If you’d like to read the rest of the articles, please subscribe to my Ecstatic Plays product (Click Here).

Some Stocks To Play After Earnings: Z, HLF, DDD, SSYS

Although the market was in a selloff today, there are some oversold names that beckoned re-evaluation.

Zillow (Z) sank down in the morning to $68.58, then, rallied to $76 for the close, almost up +5%! On Tuesday, the company reported better-than-expected earnings. Its stock jumped in after-hours trading on Tuesday to above $85. But, the stock quickly traded lower after Wednesday’s open, and headed even lower on Thursday morning, before reversing its course. I think this is oversold, and, its worth a look now.

Herbalife (HLF) popped more than +17% today after reporting a strong quarter and raised its guidance. HLF was weak for a whole year in 2014, as it was a focus short by William A. Ackman. It was not until Icahn stepped in and made bets against Ackman that HLF found signs of life again. After this quarter’s earnings and a strong forecast, it does not seen like Herbalife will go away any time soon. I think this could trade above $65 soon.

3D Systems Corporation (DDD) and Stratasys (SSYS) have been trading lower for most of the year. DDD was a $90 stock back at the beginning of 2014. It trades now just above $13! SSYS traded above $130 in October 2014; it is now just above $30. Both companies have just recently reported solid quarterly numbers. SSYS was upgraded this week, first by JP Morgan to an “Overweight”, then by Citigroup to a “Buy”. Today SSYS was up +9.32% and DDD traded up +16.24%. I am looking for SSYS to trade above $35 and DDD to trade up to $15-$16 in the near term.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

Are You Ready For A Pullback? BIIB, AMGN, GILD, CELG, UTHR, JAZZ, GOOG, FB, NFLX, APA, APC, EOG, PANW, DO, RIG

Stocks reversed the morning gains today and ended lower. The Dow was down 120.72 points (-0.69%); Nasdaq fell 83.5 points (-1.62%); SPX dropped 16.28 points (-0.78%).

In this week’s Market Forecast, we discussed the possibility of leading sectors (biotech, internet, software, financial) finally falling back and pulling the broader market down.

I have been saying for a while now that the broader market will not pull back, unless biotechs pull back. Today, biotechs suffered a steep loss, contributing much to Nasdaq’s 1.62% fall. BIIB was among the weakest, losing $18.81, or 5.61%. Here are some other biotech names and their losses today: JAZZ -3.99%; ESPR -7.75%; AMGN -3.84%; GILD -2.83%; CELG -3.52%; UTHR -4.14%; CLVS -3.89%.

Internet stocks started out the day quite strong. AMZN was up $5 in the morning, but, ended down $7.55. FB was up more than $2 and ended down $1.32. PCLN, GOOG/GOOGL, and NFLX held up pretty well.

Software group was also weak. IGV just made a new all-time high yesterday, but, gave it all back today. CRM -2.9%; RHT -3.12%; MSFT -2.02%; ADBE -1.43%.

Financials were only down slightly.

While these leaders pulled back today, energy stocks made a bounce. DO and RIG led the way, up +6.54% and +12.16%, respectively. SLB added +1.32%; APC gained +2.89%; EOG climbed +2.09%; APA popped +4.86%. It does seem like the energy stocks can bounce higher from here.

Tomorrow, we will get the latest unemployment rate and nonfarm payrolls. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts. But, from today’s selling, I sense that there are some big sellers out there. Biotechs were liquidated across the board. Other techs were sold off as well. PANW, for example, was down more than 8%, which was easily the biggest down day for PANW in years! Buyers are more and more reluctant to drive stocks higher. Instead, big sellers loom after a few strong days.

One chart in particular has been flagging warning signs to me for a couple of weeks now. Let’s take a look at the Dow’s weekly chart:


This is a 2-year, weekly chart for the Dow. You can see that there’s a rounding top and falling MAs. We have not seen this type of “topping” development in at least a couple of years. Both Russell 2000 (RUT) and SPX are showing the potential of the same formation. RUT is basically there already.

So, while the bounce in energy stocks and the dip-buyers may prop up this market for a little longer, I think the selling pressure is building up. I do not think, however, this is all about the Fed’s intention to raise rates starting in September. I think this is more that things are just getting too overbought, technically, to be keep heading higher. We will need to see a pullback before drawing more buyers back into the market.

Some people are saying that a lot of traders are still on vacation, and, when they return, stocks will rally again. I think otherwise. I think “if” the market does not pullback soon, when the traders are back from their vacation, they will drive the markets down. There is no point in buying an overbought market that is teetering on a cliff, so to speak.

So, are you ready for a pullback?

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

Monthly Wrap-Up: GOOG, GOOGL, NFLX, FB, NXPI, LNKD, AMBA, SPY, VIX

July has been a volatile month for stocks. All three major market indices (DJI, SPX, and IXIC) all ended higher slightly for the month. However, Russel 2000 was down.

We did quite well. Even though I took on a bit more risk during the last week of July, we still ended up +4.5% for the month. Here are some trading statistics on Ecstatic Plays Portfolio:

The above chart is how I did for this portfolio, as a monthly chart, since I started trading this in August 2014. Below is a table showing some more detailed stats:


I have published 861 trades (far more than most trading services that you find out there), and over 66% of which were profittable! All my trades are actionable, published live. Marketfy’s improved system is great, as it automatically publishes a price between the bid/ask at the time when the trade is published. I have no way to temper with the published price. In the past 365 days, this portfolio is up +216! As a member (Click here to subscribe), you have access to these stats from your member dashboard, and, I encourage you to access this once a week.

Here are some of the memorable trades in July:

Our biggest win this month was the play on GOOG/GOOG:

This trade rendered a +502% profit, gaining almost $22,000 over night!

We had a couple of nice trades on LNKD, although our small play on LNKD earnings did not work out:

Our play on FB before earnings was pretty nice as well:

NXPI calls gave us some nice gains, as high as +68%:

AMBA puts did quite well on a quick pullback:

Our hedge against the market with SPY pus and VIX calls also produced nice wins:

TSLA has been very strong, and our weekly calls gave us an “intrady” +74% profit:

To subscribe or to find out more about this product, please CLICK HERE. Come see what Ecstatic Plays offers and what we are trading next!

The market is still volatile. More earnings will come in next week, and the latest jobs/payroll numbers are due. I’ll be back tomorrow night with my weekly Market Forecast, which I publish every Sunday, discussing the possibilities of the coming week, available to members only!

Happy weekend and HappyTrading! ™

Tuesday Big Movers: UPS, CMI, PCP, AMGN, YELP GILD, AKAM, TWTR, BWLD, PNRA

After a few days of pullback, the market managed a bounce today. SPX added +25.61 points, while Nasdaq gained +49.43 points.

This morning, UPS reported strong quarterly results and saw its shares trade up more than +5%! PCP shares popped +7.49%, even though it missed its estimates. We traded a small trade on PCP in my Happy Trades Portfolio and took away a +43% intraday gain:

We did exit a bit early. This could have been an intraday double!

AMGN continued to plow higher, adding another +4.35% today. We got into the August 165 calls yesterday in the Happy Trades Portfolio. We took our profits on this today, and reaped profits as high as +71%:

CMI reported a strong quarter, pretty much inline with the expectations. Its shares popped +3.4% today.

After the market, techs mainly disappointed in earnings. TWTR, YELP, and AKAM all traded lower. TWTR traded down 11%. Although its revenue grew, its user growth was muted. YELP lower its 3rd quarter forecast, sending its shares falling more than 16%. AKAM dropped almost 10% after it gave disappointing third quarter forecast. GILD was an exception; it reported a strong quarter and raised its outlook. GILD shares traded +3.17% higher after rising +2.29% during the regular session.

The big winners were in the restaurant group. PNRA shares jump nearly +8%, even though it slightly missed its quarterly targets. BWLD also missed its earnings expectations, but, its shares popped almost +10%!

In a volatile market environment such as the one we are in, the earnings reactions are often all over the place. The way that PCP was driven higher was purely technical, even though the its earnings were not really all that great. I doubt that the rise in PNRA would hold tomorrow, as it is already looking toppy. We may see YELP and TWTR slip further tomorrow, as these two companies seem to have a lot of things to figure out to get their business going again.

Although stocks bounced today, I still remain very cautious.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™