Submitted By Optiondragon
Periodicals Wrap-Up for Friday, July 25th
WALL STREET JOURNAL: The Wall Street Journal reported that Cleveland -Cliffs (CLF) was set to buy Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) for $10B, but they didn’t get an okay from Phil Falcone’s Harbinger Capital, which holds 16% of Cleveland, and two days before the deal was to be announced he rejected it. Now Cleveland-Cliffs itself could be a target, and Harbinger has pushed the company to sell itself — it could sell for about $14B — and take advantage of the steel boom. Possible suitors could be ArcelorMittal (MT), Nucor Corp (NUE), or U.S. Steel Corp.(X)…Thanks to better stock prices, private equity firms and hedge funds are again looking at cash starved banks, the Wall Street Journal reported. BankUnited Financial (BKLNA) has attracted two firms. Downey Financial (DSL) has the attention of MatlinPatterson, the rescuer of Thornburg Mortgage (TMA). Earlier this week, Boston Private Financial Holdings (BPFH) received $75M from the Carlyle Group…FINANCIAL TIMES: The Financial Times reported that Wal-Mart (WMT) hammered out collective bargaining agreements with unions in two Chinese cities. Under the agreements, employees in the cities of Shenyang and Quanzhou will receive raises of about 8% in 2008 and 2009…TELEGRAPH: JPMorgan (JPM) has negotiated with several companies about launching a consortium to acquire the largest British mortgage lender, HBOS, according to the Telegraph. JPMorgan is believed to have held talks with a large Australian bank, thought to be National Australia Bank (NABZY), about the matter…
Blackrock-BLK could gain further upside momentum - BusinessWeek
Shares of BlackRock (BLK), the largest publicly traded U.S. asset manager, have shown resilience after reporting better-than-expected Q2 results. It’s now at 222.57, up from 178 on July 16. Michael Hecht of Banc of America Securities says, “It may well have risen to a level from which BlackRock could gain further upside momentum.” Also at the time of the report, BlackRock disclosed that Merrill Lynch (MER), which owns 49% of the stock, agreed not to sell its stake. Had Merrill Lynch decided otherwise, BlackRock’s stock might have crashed. Hecht, who rates BlackRock a buy, says it is “the best stock in our coverage” and worth 225�based on the asset manager’s “best-in-class products and broad mix of assets under management.” Marc Irizarry of Goldman Sachs upgraded BlackRock to buy from neutral, noting that its fundamentals have improved further, with the inflow of funds accelerating.
Morgan Stanley is looking to hire some of Merrill’s brokers-CNBC
Morgan Stanley (MS) is trying to recruit brokers currently working at Merrill Lynch (MER). Because of Merrill’s recent struggles, brokers who previously never returned Morgan Stanley’s calls are now looking to move to Morgan.
Lack of confidence keeps financial sector down-WSJ
The rally in the financials was short-lived thanks to dismal sales of exiting homes. It’s tough to grasp what’s going on with banks’ balance sheets, according to the Wall Street Journal’s “Heard on the Street”, which focuses on Bank of America’s (BAC) purchase of Countrywide Financial Corp. (CFC). The sinking value of Countrywide’s loans points to what value other banks could expect to receive if they tried to sell their loans in the current market. The picture isn’t pretty and the loans plunge well below the banks stated book values.. “That is why you see so many banks trading at such a discount to book value,” says Craig Emrick at Moody’s Investors Service.
Apple to add more GPS features, beta testing iPhone 2.1 firmware-GearLive
GearLive has heard that Apple (AAPL) has released to developers a beta version of iPhone OS 2.1. With the OS 2.1, GearLive says, comes the addition of new Core Location features “that track the direction you are heading, and the speed you are traveling”.
Mechel Steel may be seen as takeover target after Putin comments-dealReporter
According to dealReporters investment banking and industry sources, Mechel Steel (MTL) may be seen as a takeover target by Evraz, Severstal and MMK after comments from Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Puting. The sources said that it is unlikely a bid will be made over the summer for Mechel but a move towards a possible takeover could being as early as this Autumn.
Elan Corp-ELN: Raising Tysabri outlook after solid Q2 results@COWN
Cowen raised their Tysabri penetration and sales targets by 9%-12% annually following better trends in the Q2 report. The firm remains Neutral rated as they see little upside in ELN shares given bapineuzumab Ph II data is 24 months away.
Potash-POT: Recommend buying on pullback, reiterate Outperform@FBCO
Credit Suisse recommends adding to POT positions on the pullback. The firm said upward pressure on fertilizer prices remains very strong. Target $280.
U.S. equity futures are now pointing to a higher open
U.S. stock futures made a fast run higher as new orders for manufactured durable-goods in June came in much higher than expectations, up 0.8% versus expectations for a decrease of -0.3%. This was the second consecutive monthly increase and followed a 0.1 percent May increase. The S&P 500 futures jumped 5.60 points to 1,259 and Nasdaq 100 futures added 12 points to 1,831, while the Dow industrials made a strong move higher to up 44 points to 11,385..
Range Resources-RRC upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform@RBCM
RBC Capital upgraded RRC based on valuation and strong Marcellus drilling results. Target to $85 from $75
Arch Coal-ACI reports Q2 EPS 78c vs. consensus of 64c
Reports Q2 revenue $785.1M vs. consensus of $737.07M. Sees FY08 EPS $2.50-$2.85 vs. consensus of $2.67, sees FY08 sales volume 133M-$137M tons.
Legg Mason-LM reports Q2 EPS (22c) vs. consensus of 13c
Reports Q2 revenue $1.05B vs. consensus of $1.04B. Assets Under Management were $922.8 billion, down 3% from $950.1 billion at March 31, 2008, and down 7% from $992.4 billion at June 30, 2007. The first quarter net loss resulted from charges arising from previously announced support for money market funds, totaling $155.4 million after tax and operating expense adjustments, or $1.09 per diluted share.
Genentech-DNA target raised to $97 from $85@DBAB
Deutsche Bank believes the company’s negotiating leverage with Roche has increased substantially following last night’s press release. Shares remain Buy rated.
SunPower-SPWR acquires Solar Sales
SunPower Corporation announced that it has completed the acquisition of Australian integrator and distributor, Solar Sales Pty Ltd. With this acquisition, SunPower now extends its global presence into the emerging Australian solar market.
Celgene-CELG target raised to $86 from $79 after solid Q2 results@SBSH
Citigroup found Vidaza’s quarter over quarter growth impressive and maintains a Buy rating.
Black & Decker-BDK reports Q2 EPS $1.58 vs. consensus of $1.42
Reports Q2 revenue $1.6B vs. consensus of $1.6B. Sees FY08 EPS $5.25-$5.45 vs. consensus of $5.27. Sees Q3 EPS $1.30-$1.50 vs. consensus of $1.34.
Netflix-NFLX sees Q3 EPS 26c-35c vs. consensus of 31c
Sees Q3 revenue of $343M-$348M vs. consensus of $347.16M, sees Q3 ending subscribers of 8.675M-8.875M. Sees Q4 EPS 29c-37c, revenue $357M-$367M, ending subscribers of 9.1M to 9.7M. Sees FY08 EPS $1.19-$1.31 vs. consensus of $1.23, sees FY08 revenue $1.364B-$1.379B vs. cosnensus of $1.37B, sees ending subscribers of 9.1M to 9.7M.
Netflix-NFLX reports Q2 EPS 42c vs. consensus of 40c
Reports Q2 revenue $337.6M vs. consensus of $337.56M.
Crocs-CROX downgraded to Neutral from Outperform@BARD
Baird downgraded CROX following the company’s weak Q2 report and guidance. Target $5.
Wynn Resorts-WYNN target raised to $120 from $116 after strong quarter@JEFF
Jefferies raised their target WYNN’s “strong” quarter and believes current levels present a buying opportunity.
Jim Cramer’s “Mad Money”
Cramer says despite Thursday’s 283-point drop in the Dow - there are positives - with the most notable being that gas prices continue to fall and fall hard. Cramer is looking for stocks that will benefit from falling fuel prices. Walt Disney (DIS) is that stock. Despite being beaten up by the market and analysts over fears of rising airfares. Disney positives: a recent study which stated that auto traffic to Disney World has been steadily increasing, not decreasing; the weak U.S. dollar makes travelling to Disney World cheaper for the rest of the world; and it owns ESPN, a premium cable property that is doing exceptionally well. He called analysts “way behind the curve” in their estimates for the stock. He recommended buying Disney on any weakness, especially if it falls below $30. Cramer recommended Tupperware (TUP) as another company poised to take advantage of falling gas prices. TUP shares are up 96%, since his recommendation on Oct. 8, 2006. Cramer called Tupperware a defensive stock, because it’s not a traditional brick and mortar retailer, due to its direct sales model. With only 17% of the company’s costs tied to oil-based resins, lower crude prices means high margins, he noted. Cramer invited Tupperware chair/CEO Rick Goings to the show. Goings confirmed that the company’s guidance today was indeed conservative and didn’t take into account any drop in resin prices. Cramer confirmed his support for Tupperware and re-recommended buying the stock. SELL BLOCK: Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia (MSO) negative for years, Cramer now feels MSO is poised for a turnaround from just a publisher to a merchandising powerhouse. Martha Stewart Living positives; a new CEO; expansion overseas is strong; and new merchandising deals with Wal-Mart (WMT), Costco (COST) and a continued partnership with KB Home (KBH). While he did not recommending buying MSO before the company reports next week, he did advocate buying in under $8 a share. MAD MAIL: Qualcomm (QCOM) he says its going much higher. He is not a fan of Boeing (BA), but would consider Northrop Grumman (NOC). Cramer defended his call to sell Peabody Energy (BTU), saying that he can’t have people too exposed to the energy sector with fuel pricing falling. SUDDEN DEATH: (Bullish) APC, EXC. (Bearish) FMCN. LIGHTNING ROUND: (Bullish) NBR, SLB, HK, RCII. (Bearish) WFMI, HAL, IDCC, WMI.
Fast Money position recap: First Moves: Joe likes SLB, Tim likes RDX, Karen likes shorting BBT.
Macke Owns (WMT), (MSFT); Finerman Owns (GS), (WM); Finerman’s Firm Owns (SUN), (TSO), (VLO), (MSFT); Finerman’s Firm And Finerman Own (C) And (C) Leaps; Finerman’s Firm Is Short (IYR), (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM), (BBT); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (F), (MER), (MSFT), (TSO), (BX); Seygem Asset Management Is Short (MTL); Seygem Asset Management Owns Gazprom
Terranova Owns (YHOO), (INTC), (IYT), (BNI), (GOOG), (CME), (RIMM), (VLO), (SA), (XLF), (FCX), (SU); Terranova Is Long Crude Oil September $154 Calls, Terranova Is Short Crude Oil September $130 Calls, Terranova Is Short Crude Oil September $130 Puts, Terranova Is Long Gold Futures (December)
(Important note on how to use this upgrade/downgrade list with analyst comments and news….you must parse out the factual data (Factual data is the most important) from the opinionated data and always take all analyst comments with a grain of salt. Do not follow blindly with their recommendations. Remember that technicals are the most powerful force in short term direction for stock prices due to the law of supply and demand.)
The pullback in the market was not surprising yesterday but the degree of the pullback was…. Art Cashin says we should expect a pop and run through the middle of the day followed by another pullback. I am looking at the financials and seeing if they can lead the market higher, tough thing to do if your overbought in the short term so I hope we see some stabilization in that sector which could lead to stabilization of the market. With energy getting completely beaten down I am looking for other sectors to help lead this rally higher. If we don’t get any leadership the market will resume its downward course. I keep in mind that the sharpest rallies occur during bear markets as is the sharpest corrections happen in bull markets. We are still in bear market territory and the market follow through on the second wave off the low broke yesterday. So here we are and here we will be watching intently building a list of longs and shorts and ready to react to near term market environments. Pick plays with a high probability of success, run technicals through support and resistance, have focus and patience, remember to have fun!
Great luck and HappyTrading!





























