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Is Gold A Safe Haven Again? GLD

Stocks have been slumping since the beginning of 2016. Sellers just keep selling. Tech stocks have been dropping fast the past couple of weeks, from biotechs to internets to semiconductors to software; across the board, they have all been weak.

We have been staying mostly in cash and playing the downside here and there. While the markets have been pulling back, we have been making nice gains. My Happy Trades portfolio has popped more than +30% in the past 30 days!

In October last year, I wrote an article, titled “Time to Buy Some Gold!”. While gold traded mostly flat in the following months, GLD has now just broken out to the up side. During these past couple of weeks, investors have really started to put money into gold, while getting out of the stock market.

Near-term resistance for GLD lies between $116 to $118. But, I think we can add some gradually. Things are still very volatile. Positions in GLD will be mid- to long-term positions.

Good morning and HappyTrading! ™

World Markets Tumble, As Oil Stays Weak!

World markets tumbled again on Monday, as oil continued to fall lower. Sanctions were lifted on Iran and Iran boosted its oil output! At the same time, Saudi Arabia is not looking likely to decrease its production.

Just last week, I wrote an article highlighting a call that I made in August 2015 for investors to get out of oil stocks. Almost 6 months ago, I was calling for oil to drop to $30 per barrel. Now, oil is below that mark. In addition to weak oil, global growth concerns have caused global financial markets to fall since the beginning of 2016.

My two portfolios on Marketfy have pretty much escaped the onslaught unscathed. Ecstatic Plays still has the highest portfolio value on Marketfy:


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We are almost completely in cash right now. The market conditions are too volatile right now. I think we can afford to be more patient.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

Oil Going Lower!

In August 2015, I wrote an article, titled “It’s Time to Migrate Out of Oil“. Oil is now approaching the $30 mark and USO is single-digit! Solar stocks have recent jumped. This trend will likely continue.

As I said in the previous article, “Governments around the world are already making stricter policies on carbon emissions, and they will likely get tougher in the years to come.” In December 2015, global leaders finally agreed on a climate change deal to cut down emissions world-wide. Things are quickly changing. Oil stocks are tumbling. Names such as SLB, EOG, NOV, and PSX are hitting new multi-year lows. Offshore drilling are very weak, which I had discussed back in August. RIG is just above $10 now. I think it is very likely that offshore drilling will be banned in the next few years, or at least, it will more costly comparing to new ways of harnessing renewable energies.

As you can see in the chart below, the energy sector’s weighting in the SP500 has been decreasing in the past 3 years:

On the other hand, technology has been increasing. Solar stocks, interestingly, are not energy stocks, but, technology stocks.

The “de”-coupling of the solar stocks from the oil stocks have finally happened, and in quite a big way. We can see in the chart below that in December 2015, TAN (solar stocks) made a big jump as USO (oil) continued to fall:

This dichotomy may continue to become more pronounced.

The markets have been weak since the start of the year. With obscured views of the global economy, investors decided to lock in profits from 2015. Solar stocks, along with the broader market, have also pulled back.

I think oil stocks will continued to be weak. But, it may not be quite just the time to jump back into solar stocks either. The markets have been very volatile. We may have to wait until mid-February to make long-term investments.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

Stocks With Near-Term Upside Potential

There are some stocks that we have not been trading for a little while, but, seem to have drawn a bottom, or are in the process of bottoming. The markets have been volatile this week, and, we have not been trading much. I want to take a look at some stocks that have upside potential in the near-term.

CYBR

CYBR popped +8.79% today. It looks like it is drawing a bottom at around $37. We could see an upside potential to $46-$52 in the near-term.

AMBA

AMBA has been working really hard to establish a bottom. This could have quite an upside potential, perhaps to $70.

LCI

LCI jumped +6.42% today. It has also turned the corner. This could easily test $46.

BIIB

BIIB has been in trouble since August. It could be turning the corner now. If it does, it has a LOT of upside!

The health insurance stocks are all drawing bottoms. They were all up today.

ANTM

CI

HUM

Near-term targets: HUM $180-$185; CI $145-$155; ANTM $140-$150.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

Weekly Wrap-Up + Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, XRT, BTK, FAS, SOXX, BRCM, AVGO, SWKS, QRVO, AAPL, CELG, AMGN, BIIB, GILD, AMZN, BABA, PCLN

It was a volatile week, but, the markets managed to push higher. Monday and Tuesday were strong, continuing from the rally inspired by BIDU and LNKD’s earnings. However, we saw profit-taking on Tuesday afternoon that spilled into Wednesday and Thursday’s trading, ahead of Friday’s jobs report. The latest jobs numbers turned out to be really good, which renewed fear towards a December rate hike. But, late Friday morning, buyers started to return again. Both the Dow and Nasdaq ended Friday in the green. SPX closed down by less than a point!

Here are the closed trades for the week. Some of the highlights include intraday winners on MLM and VMC calls; PANW calls also did well:

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For the week, the Dow was up +246.79 points; SPX added +19.84 points; Nasdaq gained +93.37 points. Gold took a sharp fall, closing around $1090/ounce. Oil slid to trade just above $44/barrel. At the time of this writing, Asian markets were mostly higher. Here’s how the US markets looked after Friday’s close:

SPX

On Friday, SPX slipped to 2099.2, down less than 1 point. It stayed above its daily MAs, but, just below 2100. The MACD slid.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq added +19.38 points to close at 5147.12. Its daily MAs went up, but, the MACD flattened.

Both indices stuttered after Tuesday’s intraday high. We did see some profit-taking ahead of the jobs report. For the new week…

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Weekly Wrap-Up + Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, XRT, BTK, FAS, FDN, GS, V, ROST, NFLX, AMZN, REGN, AGN, VRX, CELG, AIG, TSLA, CYBR, AAPL, LNKD

The market was very strong last week. A quick drop on Wednesday as an initial reaction to the Fed was quickly reversed by a sharp rally that pushed SPX to above 2090. In my Market Forecast last weekend, I talked about SPX having resistance between 2080 and 2100,

SPX has resistance from 2080 to 2100…

SPX ended the week just shy of 2080.

We traded well last week, hitting a big trade on LNKD calls, with a profit of +173%! We exited BIDU calls too early on Friday, which also would have been a triple-digit winner.

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After the month of October, the market pretty much has recovered all of its losses from the sharp drop in August. The Dow is actually above the level at which it fell in August. Again, this seems to be the new theme: Buyers are buying the big caps, especially the blue chips. In a sharp contrast, the Russell 2000, the small caps, is lagging behind and has not fully recovered from the August tumble. Will this change? Will buyers start to shift gears and drive up the small cap stocks? We will be watching. But, I think it makes more sense to stick with the big caps as the global economy is still quite unstable. China just reported soft factory numbers today.

For the week, the Dow was up +16.84 points; SPX added +4.21 points; Nasdaq gained +21.89 points. Oil (WTI) was up, ending at above $46/barrel, while gold fell to just above $1140/ounce. At the time of this writing, Asian markets were mostly down. Here’s how the US markets closed on Friday:

SPX

On Friday, SPX slid 10.05 points to close at 2079.36. The daily MAs and MACD were little changed.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq fell 20.53 points to close at 5053.75. Its daily MAs were up slightly.

The major indices were little changed for the week. Although we did see strong buying on Wednesday afternoon, buyers were unwilling to keep push stocks higher. For the new week…

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Weekly Wrap-Up + Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, FAS, BTK, XLE, XRT, BRCM, AAPL, BABA, UPS, TWTR, GILD, YELP, AMGN, CRUS, FFIV, EQIX, ATML, MA, ALXN, SBUX, FSLR, XOM, CVX

Markets enjoyed solid gains last week. Thanks to strong earnings from AMZN, GOOG/GOOGL, and MSFT, which inspired a rally on Friday. The market started out undecided, as stocks traded in a narrow range on Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday, a quick drop in the afternoon shook out weak holders. Buyers returned strongly on Thursday, ahead of the earnings reports of the three tech giants. After market on Thursday, all three stocks jumped after their earnings were reported with AMZN and GOOG/GOOGL up more than +10%! Ironically, at the close on Friday, it was MSFT that held a +10% gain. Both AMZN and GOOG trailed off after the opening pop. But, still, AMZN closed up +6.23% and GOOG was up +7.7%.

We caught Friday’s rally with AMZN calls and BABA calls, which gave us profits as high as +59% overnight! Here are the closed trades for the week:

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For the week, the Dow was up 430.73 points; SPX added +42.04 points; Nasdaq gained +145.17 points. Gold slid, but, keeping above the $1160/ounce mark. Oil fell back to below $45/ barrel (WTI). Here’s how the US markets looked after Friday’s close:

SPX

On Friday, SPX added +22.64 points to close at 2075.15. Its daily MAs and MACD went up.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq jumped +111.81 points to close at 5031.86. Its daily MAs and MACD went higher.

With Nasdaq popped +2.27% on Friday, it has now caught up with SPX and the Dow. Small caps (Russell 2000), however, are still lagging. For the new week…

If you’d like to read the rest of the articles, please subscribe to my Ecstatic Plays product (Click Here). Ecstatic Plays portfolio also started trading stocks, in addition to options. Please Click Here to see more details.

Weekly Wrap-Up + Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, XME, BTK, XLE, FDN, AMZN, P, GOOG, GOOGL, EBAY, BIIB, GILD, CELG, AMGN, ALK, LUV, AAL, ALGT, FCX, ATI, NUE, CAT

Last week, markets managed to push higher, propelled by the strength in the semiconductors and a late rally by the financials. Semiconductors have been drawing speculators searching for the next deal, ADI and MXIM being the latest in merger talks. SNDK remains on the radar as a takeover target.

Financials were sluggish to start the week, as earnings from JPM, WFC, and GS were not very inspiring. But, buyers came in in full force on Thursday. We caught most of that surge with our GS calls, which brought in profits as high as +43%. Our GLD calls also scored an intraday +48% gain! Here are the closed trades for the week:

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For the week, the Dow was up +131.48 points; SPX added +18.22 points; Nasdaq gained +56.22 points. Gold continued to push higher, trading above $1170/ounce (see my latest analysis on gold). Oil was flat, trading above $47/barrel. At the time of this writing, Asian markets were mixed. Let’s see where the US markets stood after Friday’s close:

SPX

On Friday, SPX added +9.25 points to close at 2033.11. Its daily MAs and MACD went up.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq gained +16.59 points to close at 4886.69. Its daily MAs and MACD also went higher.Markets experienced some weakness on Tuesday and Wednesday last week, but, were able to finish higher with the help of a rally from the financials. For the new week…

If you’d like to read the rest of the articles, please subscribe to my Ecstatic Plays product (Click Here). Ecstatic Plays portfolio also started trading stocks, in addition to options. Please Click Here to see more details.

Time to Buy Some Gold! GLD

If you had invested in gold at the beginning of this year and did not cash out at the end of January, that investment probably had not done very well for you. But, your luck in gold could be about to change.

In the past two months or so, GLD has been working hard to establish a base. On Friday, GLD made another nice jump and could induce a breakout!

GLD

GLD closed at $110.87 last week. A break above $112 could send it onto a run to test $118.

Interestingly, the dollar ETF, UUP, has bee slipping. The weekly chart for UUP could be shaping into a fall:

We can see that UUP has been trading in a tight range. Last week’s fall really pushed it to the edge of a cliff. Its weekly MA are about to go into a new bearish formation. This chart looks very similar to the chart on the Dow that I showed in an article at the beginning of August, in which I correctly predicted a market pullback. (A hidden question from this is whether this chart is telling us something about the chances of the Fed raising rates this year.)

It is often true that gold is seem as a “safe haven” and it often trades opposite to how stocks move. But, last week, both gold and stocks went higher.

We traded GLD calls last week and made some nice profits. Let’s see if GLD can break above $112 and make a breakout.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

Weekly Wrap-Up + Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, FAS, BTK, SOXX, FDN, GS, BAC, WFC, JPM, BLK, INTC, ASML, XLNX, NXPI, AVGO, SWKS, CRUS, BRCM, REGN, VRX, AMGN, BIIB, NFLX, TWTR, LNKD, YELP

Markets finally had a strong week last week. Things popped higher on Monday, as SPX closed just under 1990. Tuesday and Wednesday saw some struggles with the direction as the trading range narrowed. However, Thursday’s Fed Minutes gave buyers reasons to push markets higher. Friday was a flat with small gains. SPX managed to close near 2015.

We also had a nice week with most of our trades in the “plus” column! Our calls on GLD yielded profits as high as +59%. Our stock trades on JUNO and PTCT were quite nice as well! Here are the closed trades for the week:

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For the week, the Dow was up +612.12 points; SPX added +63.53 points; Nasdaq gained +122.69 points. Gold advanced last week, closing above $1155/ounce. Old also jumped, with WTI trading near $50/barrel! At the time of this writing, Asian markets were mostly up. Here are how the US markets looked after Friday’s close:

SPX

On Friday, SPX added +1.46 points to close at 2014.89. Its daily MAs and MACD went up.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq gained +19.68 points to close at 4830.47. Its daily MAs and MACD also went higher.

Both SPX and Nasdaq managed to stay above their respective daily MAs. The recent strength in energy stocks has helped SPX; on the other hand, the weakenss in biotechs have held back Nasdaq. What’s also interesting is that after the recent pulled back, it seems that more money shifted into the blue-chip stocks, as the Dow has been very strong:

The Dow (DJI)

Last week, the Dow managed to close above 17,000, and it is up +11.2% from its recent low, much higher than the small-caps (Russel 2000), which is up only about +8% from the lows!
For the new week…

If you’d like to read the rest of the articles, please subscribe to my Ecstatic Plays product (Click Here). Ecstatic Plays portfolio also started trading stocks, in addition to options. Please Click Here to see more details.